Zonddin’s main economist never thought that Trump, the only president with real estate, would turn the tariffs on construction materials when housing is already so inaccessible. Was not right

• The world of residential objects Spring season as a tariff of fears and more difficult on builders and potential customers. The rich is the only silver lining on the apartments market – and even that can change.

Zonde’s chief economist Ali Wolf felt optimistic about one thing when President Donald Trump was elected: he understood real estate. So when Homes builders She asked about tariffs in January, told them she couldn’t imagine that the president who was smart Building material When the housing is to make many Americans, something he promised repair on the trace of the campaign. Then, in March, Trump did just thatPlace the tariff on imported steel and aluminum. Tariffs on imported wood could come in April.

“I was wrong,” Wolf said Wealth.

In a few months, Wolf hoped a little hoping for the apartments when it comes to gloomy builders, customers and sales. He still believes that the housing world is fine. Will not break into flames. But she has her worries. And an American policy that was caught in politics was caught.

Zonda’s polls routinely ask builders what keeps customers. In March, builders said that accessibility, which has been a major response for some time because the house prices have increased 45% in the last five years and Mortgage rates The distant cry is far from their pandemic lowest. Next answer: Potential customers sit aside because there is no rush to buy. The third answer is, however, one wolf that has not seen for a long time: consumers are worried about the economy, jobs and their visa status.

“It’s scary people,” Wolf said about uncertainty.

Earlier this month, the S&P 500 has entered the correction territory on the back of the tariff, and no mass release in the Federal Government is re -appearing, so the consumer feelings are feelings burning As a result. In the house, tariff and immigration policy holds people on their feet.

“We are very concerned about the tariffs,” Wolf said, because they can stimulate higher costs and have done so in the past.

Tariffs are tax on imported goods, so builders see the additional cost of products that tend to buy from other countries. If they redirect their supply chains to buy locally, it will cost them and because the goods manufactured in the US -in the not so cheap. In any scenario, the expectation is that the builders will transfer additional costs to customers. So far Trump’s administration is or threatened, planned or placed tariffs In a tree, aluminum and steel – all are used in the construction of homes. More than half of the builder in the last study said the total cost of building a house is higher than last year. And yet, there is a fear that tariff pain may not be completely felt until next year, potentially in a worse economy, Wolf said.

When it comes to immigration, the builders have not seen a significant change in their construction workforce at the moment, despite the promises of the mass deportations that Trump’s administration has given. However, they are nervous and follow the situation. Still, it goes beyond work. Anyone who cares about their immigration status is now or in the next four years will consider buying a home twice, she said. In a recent invitation to make money, a home builder of $ 30 billion Lenarski mentioned confidence of consumer slipped offAnd that this would be careful about any tariffs or deportations that could have at the bottom.

All that is taken into account is that the apartment market seems to have been set up for another spring spring season.

The only silver lining is rich, and even that can change. High class customers who can buy homes in cash did not feel the same pain of high mortgage rates. Luxury home builder Brothers tolls Recently mentioned in the invitation of earnings more than 70% of his business is from rich Moving and emptying nests with the years of respect for the price of the house and the rest are rich millennials.

But they could withdraw because of all uncertainty and weakness. “They have money,” Wolf said. “Their money has not disappeared. Their home is still worth a lot. Their supplies are still worth a lot. But what has changed is just their mood on the market.”

The apartments market was on post-paragraph stop– And in the perfect world, lower mortgage rates, a predictable stock market and confident consumers, they would fix it, Wolf explained.

This story is originally shown on Fortune.com

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