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Mexico will teach his fate only after April Fool’s Day. Donald Trump called April 2. “Liberation Day.” For Mexicans, this will be the moment when they discover the scope of the economic damage Trump plans to inflict on his country.
A large part of the global economy is likely to be affected by America’s tariffs should be announced on April 2. But the roles are especially high for Mexico, which sends 80 percent of the exports to the US. Trump has already imposed 25 percent of tariffs and Canada and Mexico. About half of these new duties were quickly on hold. But everyone could be transmitted next week.
Mexican destiny is worth watching for two main reasons. First, an unusual dependence of the economy on export exports in the US means that it is social and political stability in Mexico. Mexican economists believe that, in the worst scenario, Trump’s tariffs would cause depression in their country.
Another reason is that Mexico offers a test case of how to deal with Trump. While Canada returned to OUR With difficult conversations and reciprocal tariffs, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum played beautifully. She emphasized her respect for Trump and for the time being refrained from imposing retaliation. Sheinbaum also agreed to send another 10,000 soldiers to guard the American-Maxic border and deported 29 drug leaders with drugs in America.
Sheinbaum was rewarded with the praise of Trump, who called her “wonderful woman.” He also enjoys a celestial assessment of a public opinion survey at home. Abroad, she considered an example of how to handle Trump’s America strongly, and the New York Times praised her pragmatism and economist who welcomed her “diplomatic Nous”.
The reality is more complex. As Luis de la Calle, a leading trade economist, pointed out For me in Mexico City last week, Canada and Mexico So far, Trump’s administration has been treated quite identical so far. Sheinbaum’s critics also say that it damages Mexican economy and future investment by pressing forward with a plan to release all judges in the country and replace them with elected officials.
Since the local economy is already fighting, Sheinbaum is a bad need for Trump to break her break. But unfortunately for Mexico, Trump’s complaints go beyond the trade.
Last month, the White House claimed: “Mexican drug trafficking organizations have an unbearable alliance with the Government of Mexico.” Joshua Treviked from Pro-Trump America First Policy Institute commented He approves that the statement was “a seismic statement announcing a new age of conflict between the two nations.”
There is a serious discussion in republican circles whether they need to use a military force to hit a drug cartel within Mexico. This month, defense priorities, another researcher who influenced Trump’s world, warned: “” Bomb Mexico “is increasingly mainstream as a political option for the border safety. It would be a serious mistake.” Some influential Mexicans will quietly say that it may not be so bad if Trump’s administration encourages his government to take more aggressive measures against drug gangs – perhaps with significant American help.
The damage that cartels make Mexican society stands out with a scary discovery “Mainting Camp” In the countryside where recruits were abducted in a band of organized crime, they seem to have been killed. More than 100,000 people registered in Mexico registered, many thought the victims were victims.
But one -sided American military strikes against cartel – although they could draw fans from Trump’s base – would put a Mexican government in an impossible position. They would also risk getting up the US into another open conflict without attacking the fundamental causes of problems, which include the flow of weapons from the US to Mexico and the US own drug request.
Suggesting that the tariffs were a real tool for dealing with narcotics, illegal immigration and trade at the same time, Trump made Mexico make it difficult to make a explained response. So, Sheinbaum remained trying to humor and flatter the US president, hoping to distract him or make his advisers see him to see the reason.
The reality is that the tariffs undermine the most advanced parts of the Mexico economy and make the country poorer. These descending spirals are likely to encourage nationalism and anti -democratic populism, at the same time increasing the power of organized crime and pushing more Mexicans to try to move to the US.
The biggest hope in Mexico is to withdraw itself from a common pain caused by a tariff war. Americans rely on cheap, reliable supplies from Mexico for everyone, from fruits and vegetables to parts of cars and medical equipment. The greater inflation would be quickly felt in the United States, while the promised re-industrialization of America would come for a long time if that happened at all.
In addition to the destabilizing American southern neighbor and the biggest trade partner, it is obviously a bad idea – for now Mexico himself. But unfortunately, this is not a guarantee that this will not happen.
