Trump’s border jump is working. Here are 5 things that are likely to happen next

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President Donald J. Trump wasted no time in implementing his long-ago promises suppression of illegal immigration, sending a clear and decisive message to potential border guards: don’t bother, you’ll be sent back. During his first few days in office, Trump’s actions stood in stark contrast to President Joe Biden’s open call in 2016 for would-be migrants around the world to “rush to the border.”
Under the previous administration, Biden’s border czar, Vice President Kamala Harris famously said, “Don’t come,” while visiting Guatemala. They came anyway, ignoring her empty rhetoric and looking instead at the outstretched arms at the border.
Border crossings soon rose to record levels, straining Border Patrol agents, jeopardizing national security and putting American lives at risk.
ACTIVE TROOPS START ARRIVING AT US-MEXICO BORDER IN TEXAS AND CALIFORNIA TO FIGHT MIGRANT CRISIS
Trump’s first days back in office show the power of action. One of the most immediate effects of Trump’s border policy has been a dramatic reduction in illegal crossings. According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) sources, encounters at ports of entry – international airports and official border crossings – were down 97% by the second day of the Trump administration. Overall, encounters at the southern border decreased by 35% when comparing the last three days of the Biden administration to the first three days of Trump’s term.
United States Marines work along the southern border with the United States Border Patrol, Friday, January 24, 2025. (Provided by senior Trump administration official)
The numbers speak for themselves.
During the last three full days of the Biden administration, encounters with migrants at ports of entry averaged 1,645 per day. By comparison, in the three days following President Trump’s inauguration, port-of-entry encounters fell to less than 500 per day from just 44 to 8 p.m. on Jan. 22 due to Trump’s termination of the CBPOne application within 15 minutes of being sworn into office.
Under the Biden administration, the app has been touted as a “legal pathway” for nearly 1 million migrants to enter the US. However, critics have argued that it undermines the enforcement of border measures by providing an easily exploitable entry mechanism. By removing the app, Trump re-established control of the border, closing a loophole that was a magnet for illegal crossings.
In addition to halting the CBPOne application, the Trump administration has begun rolling back proven policies like the Remain in Mexico program, which requires asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their cases are processed. This policy not only discourages fraudulent asylum claims, but also reduces the strain on US resources and infrastructure.
Furthermore, the administration has prioritized ending “catch and release” and increasing the repatriation of criminal illegal aliens — even enlisting the U.S. military to bring deportees home. These measures send a clear signal that America is once again serious about enforcing its immigration laws and protecting its borders.
Trump’s success at the border will cause further effects. Here are five to watch:
1. Continuous decline in illegal crossing attempts
The decisive actions taken by the Trump administration are likely to discourage future illegal entry attempts. Migrants and people smugglers will recognize that the political environment has changed, making illegal border crossings much more difficult. Success leads to success.
2. Cartel adjustment
Mexico’s criminal drug and human trafficking cartels and their allies in the Mexican government will undoubtedly adjust their tactics. Redoubled efforts to intimidate and bribe US and local officials will be used to reopen smuggling channels. The Trump administration, particularly the newly reinvigorated FBI under Director-designate Kash Patel, will need to remain vigilant to counter these growing threats.
On January 22, 2025, ICE-ERO New York City arrested Jose Roberto Rodriguez-Urbina, a 22-year-old citizen of El Salvador. Rodriguez is an alleged member of the MS13 gang and is also the subject of an Interpol Red Notice from El Salvador for the crime of extortion. (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
3. The response of the Mexican government
The Mexican government has already begun adjusting to the new reality of Trump’s leadership, launching the “Mexico te abraza” — Mexico hugs you — program on Jan. 20 to welcome repatriated Mexican nationals, according to the Dallas Morning News. The program, with a new mobile app, comes in response to rumors of massive ICE raids on workplaces. Mexican citizens returning home via “Mexico te abraza” will receive a debit card with about $90 to pay for transportation home.
4. Labor market adjustments
Certain industries, such as agriculture and hospitality, could face labor shortages as illegal immigration declines. This could lead to upward pressure on wages, which could benefit American workers, albeit with some inflationary effects in the short term.
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5. The rise of automation
In the long term, industries affected by labor shortages are likely to turn to automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to meet demand. Historical examples, such as the mechanization of tomato harvesting in California in the 1960s following a labor shortage, show how innovation can compensate for reduced labor supply.
In 1961, 25 mechanical harvesters harvested 0.5% of California’s tomato crop. Just nine years later, 99.9% of California’s tomato crop was harvested mechanically. Investing in automation will reduce dependence on migrant labor while increasing efficiency — and machines don’t siphon off taxpayer-funded welfare benefits and strain emergency services.
Mexico’s criminal drug and human trafficking cartels and their allies in the Mexican government will undoubtedly adjust their tactics. Redoubled efforts to intimidate and bribe US and local officials will be used to reopen smuggling channels.
Trump’s rapid success in curbing illegal immigration is a testament to the effectiveness of strong, decisive leadership.
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His first actions — from the repeal of the CBPOne app to the reinstatement of policies like Remain in Mexico — mark a sharp departure from the Biden administration’s open arms to illegal immigrants and criminals from around the world.
As border crossings plummet and America’s immigration system takes control again, it’s clear that there’s a new sheriff in town, one committed to putting America’s security and sovereignty first.