Trump ‘agent chaos and confusion, the economists warn

Volatility of the global market and the geopolitical turbulence after the return of President Donald Trump to the White House have led to a warning that an American economy could go toward a recession – But economists say the fall is not on the cards yet.

“I don’t think we’re talking about American recession. The American economy is resistant, I would say, mostly despite Donald Trump,” said Holger Schmieding, the main economist at Berenberg Bank, on Monday for CNBC “Squawk Box Europe”.

By publishing Trump “Agent of Chaos and Confusion”, Schmieding said that the president’s “Cik -cak on tariffs shows that he has a little idea of ​​the potential consequences of his tariff policies.”

Nevertheless, “US consumers have money to spend, [and] Probably will. The labor market in the US is reasonably firmly firmly firmly, but energy prices somewhat and there is probably some reduction in taxes and deregulation, I don’t think there is a immediate risk of recession, “Schmieding said.

“But what becomes clearer in the long run, Trump has hurt American trend growth, it is growth in the years after 2026. And he advocates greater prices for US consumers, which means, in my opinion, FED [Federal Reserve] There is no reason to reduce the rates with Trump as the president, and Trump shines chaos and confusion, “he noticed.

CNBC contacted the White House for an answer and awaits an answer.

In recent weeks, international shares have been shaken into its foundations due to fear that Trump has intended to revive the war of a global trade after announcing strenuous imported tariffs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

Confusion and uncertainty came because the President announced last Friday that he would be a refund And postpone until April 2 on some tariffs on American neighbors and the nearest trade partners.

Trump’s unconventional approach to trade and international diplomacy has left the non -recreation markets, with American WhipsWing Indexes, while Strategists have warned that a negative market mood will continue in Era Trump 2.0. The US future has fallen earlier on Monday morning, pointing to another rocky ride for US markets at the beginning of the new weekly trading week.

Business leaders and economists have expressed concern that the tariffs will lead to further inflation pressures on the US, and consumers are likely to bear the number of higher prices on imported goods.

They also warn that investments, jobs and growth could suffer, as consumers pull up belts and retreat to wait for the period of economic unpredictability and Potential “stagflation” marked by high inflation and great unemployment.

This would put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, Instead of reducing their current reference rate ranging between 4.25%-4.5%in an effort to encourage economy. Lower interest rates can stimulate higher consumption and in turn, inflation.

Fed Jerome Powell’s chairman said on Friday that the central bank could wait to see Trump’s aggressive political actions play before moving again.

Recent economic data show Consumer trust has hit In February, there will be food to think for Trump’s administration. Federal Atlanta Bank Bremnow The tracker of incoming measuring data indicated last week that the US gross domestic product could be reduced by 2.4% for the period between January and March. The technical recession is defined as if it takes place when at least two consecutive quarters recorded negative growth.

Last weeks’ jobs have also shown that, although the American labor market is still expanding, signs of weakness could also start crawling. Data on non -rumored pay lists showed that work growth was weaker than expected in February, although it is still stable despite Trump’s efforts to reduce federal labor.

The non -Parme linen list increased for a seasonally adapted 151,000 of the month, exceeding the revised 125,000 January, but come below 170,000 prognosis of consensus from Dow Jones, the Directorate of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.

The main American economist of TS Lombard Steven Blitz said that the latest job information “tells us that the economy is still growing” and has not signaled “increased risks of recession created by a series of Trump policies.”

In a note on Friday, he said that “the sum of Trump’s procedures can still distort the economy in any way, including the implosion of capital consumption.”

“Keep in mind that it is known that the presidents accepted the downs and the first year of the Presidency. It is a free passage, they blame the previous president and take credit for recovery. My basic case is still growing and holding the Fed.

Trump refused to exclude the possibility of recession this year, but this weekend insisted that the economy was in the “transitional period”.

Asked about Fed Atlanta Feda warning on economic contraction by Fox News Channel “Sunday Morning Future“Trump seemed to admit that his tariff plans could affect the growth of the US.

“I hate predicts such things,” he said In an interview aired on SundayWhen asked if a warning about the recession is worried.

“There is a transitional period because what we do is very big. We bring wealth to America. It’s a big deal.” The White House leader added, “It takes some time. It takes some time.”

JPMORGAN -The US Intelligence Services Team Unit has noted that the US economy is entering a “other period of uncertainty” with regard to the unpredictable nature of the tariff. Analysts said they occupy a “bear” position in American stocks, Expecting markets to see more volatility and that the growth of the US is potentially “crater”.

“We have already seen the negative impact that policy/trade uncertainty has had on both household and corporate spending, so it seems likely that we see a larger magnitude of this over the next MONTH. notice, etc. if we start to se e unemploment rate rising rapidly, there that likes the market into the ‘recession playbook,’

Although the American recession was not a scenario of banking cases, JPMORGAN Analysts warned that “an indefinite length of tariffs and the potential for a trade war to see acceleration in new tariffs [means] We believe that the shares will be challenged because the growth assessments of US GDP have been reduced. “

“Given the lack of potential end of this escalation, the expectation is that the tariffs of this size with the ride and Canada and Mexico in the recession. Look for the expectations of GDP growth to move and that the earnings of earnings are significantly lower, forcing the re-thinking about forecasts at the end of the year. Considering that they are in our opinion.