The first quarter is on the way to the negative GDP growth, says Atlanta Fed Indicator

Early economic data for the first quarter 2025. They indicate negative growth, according to the measure of the Federal Bank of Atlanta.

Central bank Bremnow The tracker of incoming measuring data indicates that the gross domestic product is in step to reduce it by 1.5% from January and March, according to the update published on Friday morning.

Fresh indicators showed that consumers spent less than expected during an unfavorable time for January, and exports were weak, which led to a decrease. Prior to the Consumer Consumer Report on Friday, BDNOW showed a 2.3%growth for a quarter.

Although the tracker is unstable and usually becomes a more reliable measure much later in the quarter, it coincides with some other measures showing growth slowdown.

“This is sobering regardless of the innate volatility of the very high frequency of” Nowcast “held by Atlanta Fed,” said Mohamed El-Erian, the main economic advisor in Allianz and the President of Queens’ College Cambridge, said in the post On the website of social media X.

The gauge pointed to profit from GDP of as many as 3.9% in early February, but since then it has been a fall, as additional information has come.

On Friday, Trade department reported This personal consumption fell 0.2%in January and was missing the estimation of DOW Jones to increase 0.1%. Adapted to inflation, consumption dropped 0.5%. As a result, it shaped a full percentage point from the expected contribution of GDP to 1.3%, according to the BDNOW budget.

At the same time, the contribution of net exports fell with -0.41 percentage point to -3.7 percentage points.

The combination of data and its impact on growth odds comes with surveys showing a decrease in consumer trust and worries about growing inflation. The trade department has also reported that the measure of the inflation that Fed has favored the lower during the month, since the basic price index for personal consumption has fallen to 2.6%, which is a 0.3 percentage point since December.

The week also outlined some news from the labor market as Initial requirements for unemployment hit a level that was the last higher in early October.

In addition, the bond market is also priced in slower growth. A quarterly yield of treasury this week has crossed over 10-year notes and a historically reliable indicator of a recession On the horizon of 12 to 18 months.

Economic and political uncertainty has led to an uneven start of the year for the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average increased by 2% in 2025 in the middle of wild fluctuations in the unstable news cycle.

“My feeling is that the complacency that has been harvested on property markets will soon be disturbed,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a major American economist from the RSM.

Markets are increasingly believed that the FED will respond to a slowdown with multiple decreasing interest rates this year. Futures FED fund market traders have increased its chances of reducing a quarter percentage point in June to about 80% of Friday afternoon and increased the possibility of three such reductions this year.