Nervous googling: looking for “recession” and “tariff” rush as an American mood

The evidence of the mood of Americans is everywhere you look. Even at a place where you seek evidence: Google.

Unprecedented number of Americans now googling word “tariff“The issue of minimal interest in them during last year’s presidential elections.

There is still a scary word that now googling: “recession“A search of a search trend that often but not always, coincides with economic contraction.

The signs are uncomfortable due to the trade war of President Donald Trump, and in various places it appears: from economic data, to the grunting of the company, to media reporting and in tense exchanges in the White House.

On Tuesday, in the daytime briefing of the White House, he dominated questions about a trade war that helped eliminate all gains on the market From the election of November 5.

The main economist in Moody’s is among those who see the growing probability of American recession – Mark Zandi puts it at 35 percent and some even said that higher.

It all depends, Zandi told CBC News, whether Trump’s tariff policy remained in place; did they expand to other countries; And what the retaliation looks like.

“It’s all negative. It’s just a question of how negative it is,” Zandi said of the current trade uncertainty. But if that continued, he said, “it would result in a complete, knockout, drawing a trade war that would result in a global recession.”

And this is the context of why Trump has achieved a seemingly impossible feat: making the mainstream of the US media take care of the trade.

It is unclear whether the average Canadian fully realizes how few interest rates usually exist in trade news, partly because the US economy is less dependent on trade in general and less relying, specifically, in Canada as an export market.

But now everywhere in the news it’s a tariff, a tariff, a tariff.

Networks have correspondents in Canada who chronic over -border anger. CNN segments contain an unfortunate beer manufacturer in North Carolina, frowning about aluminum tariffs that impair his thin profit margin; Others show worried Washington State Apple exporters, and Jack Daniel talks about being pulled from the Canadian store shelf.

The latest American celebrity? Doug Ford

Doug Ford is now ubiquitous on US TV.

Prime Minister Ontario has turned on behalf of the household, with his high voltage council and language that is also atypically blunt for a Canadian politician.

Of course, that attention carries the risk of lack. Its short -term taxation of electricity exports attracted a counter to Trump even more tariffs. The White House even warned of serious consequences for Canada if it interrupted the electricity.

While they both called it, the US is still adding 25 percent of steel and aluminum tariffs on Wednesday, with untold consequences for numerous industry.

This uncertainty broke through the meeting of international auto-diet manufacturers, gathered at a conference in Washington.

“These things cause panic and paralysis,” said Flavio Volpe, chief of Canadian main group for auto-diet.

“This is where it appears [Trump] She doesn’t care. And tries to shake the market. To what end? No one knows. “

It is a topic of lively discussions among conservatives: whether Trump is in the head and creates a mess that can be avoided or whether there is a sustainable plan in a 3D chess move.

The theories of the latter include obviously – that Trump wants companies to leave foreign production and build factories in the United States, which has already done several major companies.

But there is less obvious theory that his supporters are failing – that he actually wants to slow down the economy, force lower interest rates, resulting in a lower bond payment and a US debt.

Trying to decipher Trump’s end game

Reflectioning that parting in a party, the right -wing New York Post offered unpleasant cover that shows a drop in stock market but flattering column on Trump’s approach.

Conservative national review in the meantime has published unequivocally awful column The title “Does Trump know why he was chosen?”

It was said, “President Trump is at risk of cracking his second term before hitting a two -month mark. Continue. Show at me to say that. I don’t care.

“The people who voted Donald Trump to duty wanted to return it in 2019. They did not apply for a trade war with Canada, the resurrection [tariff-imposing former president] William McKinley, or endless play of red light/green light tanks [retirement plans]. “

The White House aggressively pushes back.

During the daily briefing for a printing -dominated printing, a spokeswoman for Trump Caroline Leavitt quoted a new production Jobs and reports of several companies that overtur from Pharma Giant Merk to Apple.

Official Line of the White House: Forget the reaction on the Wall Street, which is temporary. Watch the main street and a long-term effect on US jobs.

This led to unusually personal exchange.

The Associated Press journalist called Tariffs as an increase in the Americans. Leavitt insisted that he pay him a stranger. Strictly speaking, the reporter was right, although foreign companies were sometimes paid to avoid the loss of their customers in the US.

But the journalist caused her, asking, “I’m sorry – have you ever paid for the tariff? Because I am.” Leavitt regretted that he allowed AP to ask the question, “I think it’s offensive that you are trying to test my knowledge of the economy.”

Here’s what it’s hard to challenge: economic data is acidic.

Business uncertainty is on historical Visoko. Consumer trust is lowered. The S&P 500 lost 10 percent of its previous high, official intake of correction territory. Other indicators to say a recession is growing possibility.

There are two questions, says economist and trade analyst Marcus Noland, Vice-President of the Pro-Trede Peterson Institute for International Economics.

One is the tariffs themselves. He said economists can evaluate the influence. In fact, the Peterson Institute has, calculating That Trump’s first series of tariffs will shave percentage point or two of the economies of Canada and Mexico, and a fraction of a point from the American economy. Auto company, it will be especially faced with a pernicious increase in costs, he said.

Then this is uncertainty – “a chaotic way to develop,” Noland said. Trump’s tariffs are again, again, a slightly reduced species. It’s harder to model.

Regular people begin to notice, he said. In his life, he saw a sudden jump in prices for Granol from a walnut -free factory in Canada, which he receives because of the family allergy. And there is no saying where it ends.

“The American economy slows down,” he said. “In the last week, people began to worry that we could experience the recession.”