Beirut, Lebanon – Recent conflicts along the Lebanese Syrian border have retreated to their army and threatening to disrupt the efforts of both governments to establish their powers.
Conflicts seem to have calmed down for the time being, as the two -party interruption agreement was reached late Monday, March 17th.
Experts and analysts say that conflicts are related to a new reality on the field, where Bashar is Al-assad is no longer in power and Hezbollah’s influence perhaps perishes.
A blurred limit
After Hezbollah’s intervention in the Syrian war, he expanded his authority over both sides of the border.
But after Bashara Al-Assad’s regime was spectacularly crashed in early December, interrupting the key line of supply for Hezbollah the reduced non-select Israeli war of Lebanon, the struggle appeared.
“[With] The fall of the al-Assad regime and Hezbollah’s weakening, the Syrian-Libanon border and the influence zone with him for Al Jazeera told Armenjak Tokmajyan, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East East Carnegie.
The Lebanese border with Syria is 375 km long and, despite domestic and international efforts over the years, has not yet been demarcated.
His rugged terrain, paired with the historic absent Lebanese state, made him ripe for smuggling – especially in the area where conflicts were taking place.
“This part of the border-all over the Lebanese-Syrian border, has been blurred during the Syrian war,” said Tokmajyan. “Hezbollah spread to Syria with social, economic and military networks, facilitating both light and illegal cross -border activities.”
On the Syrian side, the fourth armored division of the Maher al-Assad facilitated the smuggling of crime operations with unions in Lebanon, according to Caroline Rose, director of strategic blind spots at Think Tank New Lines Institute.
Crime trade unions are often governed by members of powerful tribes in the northeast, playing an integral role in politics and local social affairs and have built relations with Hezbollah from the establishment of the group in the 1980s, often have overlap or sharing of interest.
They “now find themselves without a key ally and a cross-border protection source,” Rose said, noting that since the fall of Al-Assad’s regime, the fourth armor-branched division could no longer work.
New governments came to power in Lebanon and Syria, and their leaders spoke about the need for border border. This would disrupt the routine smuggling for crime trade unions and for Hezbollah, who, experts said, used from current iniquity along the undefined boundaries.
“These conflicts indicate the key struggle of power not only between criminal unions and clans involved in illegal smuggling over the control of the route, but also a greater struggle with state forces that their capacity increases in Syria and Lebanon,” Rose said.
Clashing narratives
The last round began on Saturday, March 15, after the murder of three Syrian soldiers. The circumstances of how they died, however, are challenged.
The Syrian Provisional Government claims that the Hezbollah fighters entered the Syrian territory, ambushed and abducted three soldiers near the Zeita dam, returned them to the Lebanese territory and executed them.
مجم THROUGHTER ميليليا advance الله تقوم وم وبر كمين بخطault ثلاsis للrange راضي اللبنانiment وتقوم بتصault PRARED تص – my plamed يiest ميدان passed. pic.twitter.com/i3eq0diiqh
– الوكالENTURY العربيmosty السوريverse للrange March 16, 2025
“A group from Hezbollah’s militia moved in and abducted three Syrian Arab army staff on the Syrian-Liban border near the Zeita Bran, west of Homs, before taking them to the Lebanese territory and executed them on the spot,” Sana, Syrian State news agency, wrote them.
The bodies of three men were returned to Syria through the Libanonian Red Cross.
Hezbollah denied any involvement in their death, saying that “it has nothing to do with any events that take place in the Syrian territory.”
Lebanese media reported that three men had entered the Lebanese territory and clashed with people from local tribes – some of whom had relations with Hezbollah – who were afraid they were attacked.
Lebanese information minister Paul Morcos said three Syrian men were smuggled, while some local Lebanese media said that smugglers with belonging to the recently dissolved Syrian group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Many of the best Syrian officials, including the new leader of Ahmed al-Sharaa, originate from the group.
What is known is that the Syrian Ministry of Defense blamed for Hezbollah and sent troops to the border in the Province of Homs, across from the Lebanese northeast, where they began to granate Lebanese border cities.
ش الجيش العربي السو TUA ق EXERCISE ق EXTERNATION#سانا Jek pic.twitter.com/7FR2Kiy3kj
– الوكالENTURY العربيmosty السوريverse للrange March 17, 2025
[Translation: Syrian Arab Army forces prepare to expel Hezbollah militia from the village of Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali in the Qusayr countryside, west of Homs.]
The hostilities were killed by seven Lebanese citizens and 10 Syrian soldiers, while another 52 Lebanon was injured. Others were also wounded on the Syrian side, including some journalists built into the Syrian army.
When the conflicts began, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun sent troops to the area and instructed them to return the fire.
New border dynamics
The sudden presence of the state – I in Lebanon and Syria – could also represent a threat to Hezbollah, which experts said he had an interest in retaining the situation in the border chaotic.
Marcel Baloukji, a former Brigadier General who monitored the Border Committee of the Lebanese Army, told the Al Jazeera most of the funding of the group came from smuggling that was carried out by local tribes.
“This is a camouflage,” Baloukji told Al Jazeera about Hezbollah’s denials that they were involved. Some of the tribe that clashed with Syrian forces, Baloukji said, Hezbollah probably “supported” so that the area would be chaotic so that the group could continue to profit from smuggling.
However, the impact of the group is on the disappearance of the brutal two -month campaign for the bombing of Israeli Israeli, which killed many parties, including the longtime leader of Hassan Nasrallah, and the fall of a key ally across the border.
Some experts believe that tribes could leave Hezbollah because of their own interests, coming to agreements with the Lebanese army and the new Syrian authorities.
Hezbollah also perceived the new government in Syria as Parija because of his long support and intervention on the side of the current Al-Assad.
“The reasons behind such conflicts may vary, but what is clear is that the borders and cross -border dynamics change,” said Tokmajyan.
“And this is just the beginning of this process.”
