This is not a way out that would be expected. Justin Trudeau will end up his last days as a Canadian prime minister with a country thrown into economic unrest if President Trump on Tuesday follows his plan to impose 25 percent of tariffs on Canadian exports.
While Canadian officials spent most of last week in Washington trying to reject the president’s tariff, which will also refer to Mexico, these efforts have been in vain so far. If the tariffs take effect, Canada is ready to take revenge, launching a trade war.
Mr. Trump offered various rational bases for tariffs, which were supposed to enter into force in early February, but were suspended for 30 days. He says the United States are destabilized by a large number of unauthorized migrants, as well as large quantities of fental, crossing the border from Canada and Mexico. The Statistics of the US Government does not support the request.
Mr. Trump also claimed that the Americans “subsidized Canada” by providing hundreds of billions of dollars a year – although he did not provide any evidence – and urged the companies to move their plants from Canada to the United States. Mr. Trump complained of Canadian trade surplus with the United States, which mainly manages the export of oil and gas and It was $ 63 billion last year.
Regardless of the reason, there is a widespread consensus in Canada to cause the tariffs to damage the Earth’s economy, which depends on exports, as well as industries that are tightly integrated with the US market.
Jean Simard, president of the Canadian Aluminum Association, recalled the effect of 10 percent of the US tariff on Canadian aluminum exports during the first Trump administration.
“10 percent of tariffs have been very devastating for years ago,” Mr. Simard said. “Twenty -five percent of tariffs will be very destructive.”
The response of the limit
Only 19 kilograms of fentanil They were intercepted last year at the Canada-US border, compared to almost 9,600 pounds on the border with Mexico, according to US customs duties and the protection of the border. AND Investigation of Globe and Post, The Toronto newspaper revealed that the Canadian figure was inflated by the switches of seizures that were not connected to the border.
Last year, US authorities arrested approximately 24,000 people who went illegally from Canada to the United States, compared to more than two million people arrested on the southern border.
Still, Mr. Trudeau’s government quickly moved to place the concern of Mr. Trump about both questions by investing $ 1.3 billion in Canadian dollars (about $ 900 million) on a number of measures to fix the border.
They included the appointment of “Fentanil Cara”, providing the police of the royal Canadian mounted with two Black Hawk helicopters to monitor the 5,525 -mile long border, assigning a large number of its officers to the border patrol and the purchase of various electronic supervision devices, including drone.
The increased security of the border led to the arrest of a small number of people entering Canada from the United States.
While Mr. Trump said last week that he saw an improvement on both boundaries on migration, he added that he was not satisfied with how Canada and Mexico were involved in the smuggling of the fentanis.
While Mr. Trump insists that Canadian exporters will cover the cost of tariffs, the laundry would have to pay American importers. It is unclear whether they will be able to regain costs from Canadian companies.
The result, the vast majority of economists agree, would be a disorder of inflation and supply in the United States, while the Canadian industry could face great release.
Mr. Simard said that only the threat of tariffs had already significantly increased the costs of aluminum in North America. If the tariffs enter into force, it estimates, the resulting increase in the price of aluminum will add about $ 3000 to the Ford F-15 truck trucks.
The car trade between the two countries is approximately equivalent, and many car parts cross the border several times before they ended up in a assembled vehicle.
Since 25 percent are far higher than profit margins on cars and trucks, as well as parts used for them, industry managers predict that parts manufacturers will soon stop delivering and the factories would quickly close in all three countries, eliminating thousands of workers.
“25 percent of tariffs across Mexico and Canadian border will blow a hole in the US The industry we have never seen, “said Jim Farley, the Ford Motor Company CEO last month.
US farmers would also face increased prices for potassium, vital fertilizer. About 80 percent of potassium in the United States comes from Canada for limited US reserves.
No desirable choices
Mr. Trump has repeatedly suggested that the easiest way to avoid Tariffs is to become 51. His invitation to the annexation of Canada, as well as his repeated denial as a sustainable nation, has angry many Canadians. This has already led to the call boycotting US goodscaused Canadians to cancel US holidays and again affection For the flag of the maple leaves.
Mr. Trudeau promised that Canada was ready to respond to the tariffs to American imports. Initially, he would target the products worth $ 30 billion in Canadian dollars, including Kentucky Bourbon, from Republican states whose elected officials could take off with Mr. Trump.
There are suggestions to interrupt oil, gas and electricity sender to the United States or imposing data on these products.
Although the tariffs are a clear violation of the free trade agreement among Canada, Mexico and the United States that Mr. Trump has negotiated during his first administration, using his system to place disputes to achieve levies could last for years. Nor is it clear that Mr. Trump would have accepted any judgment against the United States.
More to come
Canada also faces a 25 percent global tariff that Mr. Trump has promised to sign up for steel and aluminum. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of both materials in the United States, and Mr. Trump suggested that these tariffs would be stacked at the top of a 25 percent tariff, which he promised to come on Tuesday.
He also spoke of creating certain tariffs against cars and copper.
And next month, Mr. Trump plans to introduce a worldwide tariff system based on reciprocity. He would set tariffs based on politics of other countries that affect trade with the United States, such as tariffs, taxes and subsidies. These were the conditions of a trade relationship between Canada and the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
The potential effect on Canada is not clear. Due to the free trade agreement between three countries, Canada charges relatively little tariff on US goods, so the reciprocal Washington tariffs would be similarly limited. The tariffs that Canada imposes are mainly on dairy products, poultry and eggs.
