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Your guide for what American choices 2024 means for Washington and the world
Donald Trump is the biggest advantage of Maga movement and his greatest responsibility.
The US president is a political genius. But he is in memorable phraseAttached to Rex Tillerson, his first secretary, “Fucking Moron” when it comes to understanding politics.
This tension between Trump’s Genius and Trump Moron is dangerous for the “Green” Movement, which he created and led.
As a political actor, he cannot deny that Trump has an intuitive genius that has allowed him to fully reshape his American politics. Winning a second term of office from a crucial margin gave him an absolute authority within his party. For now, Trump can do what he wants. The problem is that what he wants is likely to be very harmful to America.
The most obvious example of the self -destructive nature of Trump’s policy is his obsession with tariffs. The US president cannot or will not understand that the tariffs are paid by importers and that much of the costs will be transferred to consumers. He also considers an unpredictability as a virtue. So, the tariffs are imposed, lifted and then re -examined, seemingly to whim. The result is that companies cannot plan in advance and yes consumers and investors panic.
In Trump’s first term, when his political authority was weaker and his advisers were more conventional, the president’s assistants were able to refuse some of their worst ideas. Officers have sometimes ignored or reinterpreted his instructions, or even Removed papers From his table, in an effort to restrain his instincts.
But in the second term, the president surrounded himself with sikophants who want to “let Trump be Trump.” Howard Lutnick, his trade secretary, assures us that Trump “is the most important, smartest, most capable leader in the world.” Thus, the president can continue forward with politics that will probably harm most Americans in direct and tangible ways.
Trump has done many amazing things in the past, such as attempting to reset the results of the 2020 presidential elections. But few of his previous actions influenced the daily lives of ordinary Americans. The cause of recession, a higher inflation or a drop in stock would be different. About 60 percent of Americans of its own sharesoften in its pension funds. Many will be scared of the recent fall in shares. Consumer confidence also falls as inflation expectations increase.
The economy is the most important issue rated by voters in the last election. But Trump’s ratings for handling the economy have already become negative. There may be more pain as the reduction in the federal workforce will be driven out of Washington. Possible reductions in health benefits funded by social insurance or the state would also hit millions.
Choosing struggles with American neighbors and allies may seem to be a category of questions that the average voter can shrug. But the threatening attachment of Canada (another Moronian idea) began an unnecessary trade war with a peaceful neighbor. If Canadians revenge on forcing the price of oil or electricity exports to the United States, ordinary Americans will suffer. Mexico tariffs could also raise supermarket prices. About 50 percent of American imported fruit comes from Mexico. The profit of large American car companies could be erased 25 percent of imports on imports from Canada and Mexico.
The economic effects of Trump’s policies are likely to determine the future of his Presidency. But Trump also brings Americans to risk in other ways. The release of FBI agents and intelligence officials and the appointment of a conspiracy theorist for the director of the National Intelligence and FBI-Recept Chief is for a possible high disaster. By setting up another conspiracy theorist, Robert F Kennedy JrIn charge of the Health Department creates another set of obvious dangers.
Watching Trump releasing his inner Moron on the US Government reminds me of the prediction I heard from the reputable American businessman in January. “If Trump laid the things he promises, the whole thing will blow this thing. And he will discredit Maga for a generation.”
An obvious mechanism for blowing would be a huge defeat for Republicans in the next election. But they are almost two years old. Trump and his minies can do a lot of damage to US institutions at the time, including the electoral system. If the administration begins to flutter, Trump is likely to respond to the hunt for the sacrificial victims and increased authoritarianism.
However, the experience in other damaged democracies is that even a partially equipped system can act well enough to apply the election defeat of the extremely right populists. Jair Bolsonaro lost the Brazilian presidential election in 2022 (after which he was charged with attempted a coup). The Polish Party of the Law and Justice lost power in the 2023 election. Viktor Orbán of Hungary, who has been the Prime Minister since 2010 and has been admired by Maga movement, follows on the surveys ahead of the elections that are expected next year – because the Hungarian economy is fighting. Over the weekend in Budapest were Anti-Orbán demonstrations.
Right -wing populists can often win in culture wars. But the wrong resolution of the economy is much harder to explain. If Maga makes Americans poor, Trump and his movement are likely to pay the price.
