Growth expectations fell as global funds managers poured out of US shares and a bunch of cash like Warren Buffett

• Fund manager’s feelings They are extremely related to the effect of S&P 500 analysts, led by Michael Hartnett’s chief investment strategist, he said that they dimmed the views of US shares “fell” the fall of the bulls “in feeling, but they pointed to the speed and proportions of correction tickets for the market for the market.

Optimism of money manager has faded quickly In the early days Trump 2.0. Monthly Global Bank of America Fund Manager survey Feelings were discovered in March, resulting in the second worst decline in global growth expectations and the highest decline in the US Capital Award since Bofa started conducting a 1994 survey.

Respondents signaled that their sale helped stimulate the recent stock market correction As they parked their money to the side – the rest record of Warren Buffetta $ 334 billion Gotovina crowd.

American most respected investor, however, gave a well -known part advice in the letter Berksshire Hathaway Shareholders 1968: “Be frightened when others are greedy and greedy when others are scared.” Indeed, while Bofa analysts led by Michael Hartnett’s chief investment strategist said that they dampened the views of American shares, stimulated “the fall of the bulls” in the feeling, they pointed to the speed and proportions of the correctional bodies for the market that goes forward.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that 171 respondents, operating approximately $ 425 billion in assets, were scared by President Donald Trump, again, again tariff threats. In February, 2% of investors expected a weaker global economy in the next 12 months, which means that the small majority of respondents were pessimistic at the time. This number has since been balloned to a 44%one-month-old decline in growth expectations, except March 2020, or the start of the Coidd-19 pandemia in the US

Funds manager, Bofa said, was very connected to S&P 500 performance.

“Pesimism on Global Growth Outlook is bad news news,” the team wrote when the survey was conducted during the second week of the month, published last week.

After Trump’s election victory in November, he hopes that the new administration will prioritize tax reduction, and the deregulation has encouraged a large set for shares. Instead, Trump appeared focused on the use of tariff not only as a negotiating chip but also as tools To address the US trade deficit, resulting in a huge uncertainty about US trade policy.

In a BOFA study, 55% of the Funds Managers said that the recession caused by a trade war is the highest “ra risk of a tail” facing the market-most valuable factor than the “Covid Reingence” in April 2020-an increase in the increase in inflation rates by federal reserves and concerns influence Department of Efficiency of the Government of Elon Musk, also known as Doge.

In the meantime, over 70% of respondents said they were expecting a terrible form “stagflation“or slowing down the growth and rise of inflation. However, none of the managers of funds that, however, is not currently predicted by true recession.

Investors get the reason for cheering

It is also important to note that surveys about the investors can explain much better why the shares have recently sold out than the signal where the market is on the forehead. In one month, the average cash position of the surveyed funds skipped 60 base points at 4.1%. This indicates the end of the bofa contradiction “sales signal” or metric that suggests the opportunity to buy low when other investors are sold and vice versa.

This signal was initially launched in December, when the cash distribution of the respondents fell below the bofa threshold of 4%. Since then, Nasdaq The composite and S&P 500 entered the correction territory, lowering 10% or more before they recovered slightly.

Clearly, managers have decided to turn from US shares, with a net 23% investors exceeded to weight, compared to a net 17% of overweight last month. The fall of 40 points is the largest in the history of the survey, and 69% of respondents said the topic “We are exceptional” – or American shares surpassing the rest of the world – they reached its peak. Bullish expectations about Chinese economyIn the meantime, they became the norm.

However, BOFA research has shown that investors are still expecting a Fed on the way to achieve a so-called “soft landing” or lower inflation without stimulating recession, and believe that the central bank will reduce interest rates two to three times this year.

On Friday, the S&P ended the week in Green for the first time a month. Investors got more good news over the weekend reports By suggesting the so -called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, which Trump ordered for economic officials to be adapted to the design basically every US trade partner will be a relatively narrow scope. The market cheered the news and the S&P 500 increased 1.5% from Monday afternoon.

This story is originally shown on Fortune.com

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