Loket Tarija Fast between now. and China In recent days, the global fear of the new trade war between the two world’s largest economics has increased. Although experts think that the battle is likely to escalate, they also say that early conflicts offer hope for a trade agreement and other key issues that could cast out a greater conflict.
Once Trump’s administration is an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports entered into force on Tuesday, China announced 15% of tariffs On American coal and liquidated natural gas, along with a 10% tariff on raw oil, farm machines and some cars, which should be launched on February 10th. China also set restrictions on the export of vital minerals used in high -tech products; opened the antitrust probe in Google; and put two US companies on the list of “unreliable entities” – PVH Group, owned by Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, and Illumina, a biotechnology company with offices in China.
It is significant, however, the US has decided to hit China with a relatively modest tariff, not a charge of up to 60%, as President Trump has been threatened before. For his part, Beijing also pulled his shots aiming to aimed less vital US sectors, leaving the door open to sides to reach an agreement.
“I mean [Mr. Trump] Undertaken by the larger Chinese tariffs because it became clear to him that he would remove any possibility of negotiations, “the CBS, a trade policy expert William Reinsch, a former US substance for export administration trade and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for CBS Moneywatch.
For now, investors on Wall Street also take fresh trade sanctions of countries, betting that neither Mr Trump nor Chinese President XI Jinping want to start a destructive economic war.
“For now, it’s all rhetoric. This is a negotiation phase,” said Bill Dendy, the financial strategist of investment bank Raymond James. “It’s like two brothers who start talking smack and they’ll start throwing strokes, but they don’t want to hurt each other. It’s not good for anyone if they get out of their hands.”
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of the Chinese economy in the capital economy, told investors in the report that Chinese retaliation were “apparently calibrated to try to send a message to the US (and to the domestic audience) without causing too much damage.”
Even such efforts to prevent the full trade war could perish, encouraging Mr. Trump to continue the weighing line against China, which he has long claimed to use a number of dishonest practices missing US companies and workers.
“Edge of Cliff”
Reinsch said he expects Mr. Trump and XI to discuss a agreement that could lead to the abolition of the tariff or at least wait. “These are all movements of influence,” Reinsch said. “The purpose is to force negotiating what is [Mr. Trump] He wants to negotiate, and he is good at Brinkmanship. He goes to the edge of the cliff as he did with Canada and Mexico, and then withdrew in a way that allowed him to declare victory. “
Mr. Trump announced 25% of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1. But now fast Paused for that duty for a month After the leaders of both countries said they would increase their efforts to suppress the flow of illegal drugs and migrants to the USA
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “agreed that she would immediately supply 10,000 Mexican soldiers on the border separated by Mexico and the United States,” Trump wrote about the truth of Social. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would invest $ 1.3 billion in better protection of his southern border.
“Trudeau and Sheinbaum realized that this was a way to play it. If Trump got outside the ramp where he can say,” OK, I won, “he would take it, and that happened,” Reinsch said.
Whether such a dynamics will ultimately work with China and whether Xi willing to indulge in remains uncertain. After all, during the first term of Mr. Trump, he repeatedly imposed tariffs on China, which brought Beijing to take revenge every time. Some experts think that Trump officials will have to encourage much harder to get the types of changes that will probably satisfy Mr. Trump.
“This signifies the fifth time in a row that Beijing revealed himself to the tariffs, not the necessary reform. The first four times happened during Trump’s first term, and they also received zero results. At some point, President Trump has to realize that Tariff will not get what he wants from China, “said Ryan Young, a senior economist for a competitive Enterprise Institute, a advocate group that favors a deregulation, in a statement for CBS Moneywatch.
Risks for consumers
The risks of escalating trade war between the USA -a China are significant, including growing inflation.
“If we continue to descend this road, it can be very harmful to the US consumer, because the consumer pays these tariffs, because the costs that industries do not absorb that already have heavy margins,” Dendy said.
If countries do not find a breakthrough, “Americans can expect to pay a lot more for their technological goods, as well as clothes and other things,” he added.
In contrast, US prices will not rise in the short term, even if the conflict continues, economists notice. First, growing tariffs would probably slow economic growth, muffling inflation because consumers and companies collapse. Reinsch also notes that many American companies that import goods from China have prepared for higher costs with the preventive construction of their supplies.
One area where US consumers could feel the immediate influence of the purchase of cheap clothing from Chinese fast models Shein and the topic. The new US tariffs on China eliminate exemption for packets worth less than $ 800, which means that a low value goods are now subject to collection.
Now they get about a billion of such shipments a year.
“If you are a topic and shein, you will probably hit two basics. You will need to start paying tariffs on dresses and T -shirts, so it will hit,” Reinsch said. These costs would be transferred to customers. In addition, Mr. Trump asked US customs and border protection to review low values packages to display them for fentanil, which could create delays in delivery. “
Applying 10% of cinema tariffs, together with 25% duties to imports from Canada and Mexico, which are now on hold, it would cost a typical US household more than $ 1,200 a year, according to the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
