The African horn is a turbulent region whose history and contemporary reality are intertwined with those in the Middle East. Just like the Middle East, it breaks through strategic waters that maintain millions of people and connect continents, and so is the theater of a fierce geopolitical rivalry. Great forces and regional players constantly round out their huge strategic resources, which led to a conflict that ravaged the region and its peoples.
Eritrea has long been eager for participants in this discomfort theater. Almost half a century of Eritrea was involved in different degrees in almost every conflict in the region. Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia are affected by his machinations. The ambitions of Isaias Afwerki, the first and only President of Eritrea since 1993, saw that his country became involved in many conflicts of miles away from his borders, including those in the Great Lakes region. Isaias seems not only attracted to the conflict, but seeks it and succeeds in it, like a pyromaniac who cannot resist the setting of fire.
Isaias’ 32-year-old rule in Eritrea is a cautious story. From independence, the country lacked all the traditional management tools that most nations take for granted. No Constitution. No parliament. There is no civil service. In Eritrea there is only one executive, legislative and legal body – President Isaias.
In Isaiass’s Eritrea, the military service is also mandatory and vague. The young Eritreans often risk everyone to try to escape all their lives in the president’s army. As such, the main export of the Eritrean state, in addition to the illegal gold, is a large number of young men and women who take the risk of moving to neighboring countries and Europe illegally. The Eritreans flee their country in the ejection to avoid forcibly recruitment into military service and other dystopian reality created by the regime.
War is the main job and preoccupation of the Eritrean state. Here and there the interference of the conflict, supporting the rebels, rebels or governments seeking war and division throughout the region, it seems that Raison is the state of Eritrej.
Today, Isaias is again dealing with maneuvers who are as destructive as predictable.
After years of strong animosity towards and directing the conflict with the liberation front of Tigream People (TPLF) – a party that has ruled the Tigray Ethiopia regions since 1975 and has waged a war against the Federal Government from 2020 to 2022. Ranks.
History is long and bitter here. In the late 1990s, the fall between Eritrea and Ethiopia broke out into a bloody war. After years of bloodstream, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was able to secure a peace agreement between the two countries in 2018 and received the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
Unfortunately, reconciliation with Eritrea did not deliver a long -term peace dividend. Because, for Isaias, the construction of trade and infrastructure connections between Ethiopia and Eritrea was not of interest. He had no appetite for economic collaboration, despite being useful for both countries.
When TPLF launched its unfortunate offer to restore power in Ethiopia, by removing Prime Minister Abiya 2020, Isaias saw his opportunity. Eritrean forces grew in Tigray, leaving destruction in wakefulness. The peace agreement under the 2022 pretorse, which ended the conflict between the Ethiopian government TPLF, was a diplomatic triumph for Ethiopia and the African Uci. But it was a personal failure for Isaias, who manages to see in conflict and peace as an obstacle to his efforts to expand his influence.
It soon became clear that Isaias wanted a conflict in the Tigay region to continue for a period of time, and Ethiopia bleeds into oblivion. In order to cancel the peace agreement from the prerator, he designed the militia in the state of Amhar in Ethiopia. More recently, he has also found a common cause and united forces with elements within TPLF, which were not satisfied with the peace agreement.
His cynical and dangerous machinations are now threatening to undo the peace agreement from Praetoria. The Fraction of TPLF’s armed supporters openly expresses its intention to dismantle the temporary administration set under the peace agreement and tearing the entire peace agreement. Implications of such development would be catastrophic, both for Ethiopia and for the wider region.
The roles could not be higher. To the west of Ethiopia, Sudan spends the civil war. In the east, Somalia is fighting for renovation after a decade of gradual collapse. Over the Sahel of extremist groups, they get soil. The possible return of the conflict in the Tiger region must be estimated in this context. A chaos belt that stretched from Sahel to African horn would be catastrophic. It would paint groups like Al-Shabab and ISIL (ISIS), creating new haven for terrorism and disrupted global trade through the Red Sea.
The consequences of a renewed conflict in Rog would not stop at African borders. Refugee waves would move towards Europe and beyond, further stressing already fragile systems. An extremist ideology would find fertile soil, their reach that extended to the Middle East. Global forces, from Washington to Beijing to Brussels, have a proportion in what is happening here. Roga stability is a common interest.
The world must act. Diplomatic pressure is needed to distract those who want to see the end of peace, like Isaias. The peacetime agreement from the praetory must be defended. Regional cooperation must be encouraged by investments in trade, infrastructure and management. This is not just an African problem. It’s a global challenge.
If the horn descends into chaos, the effects of the shooting will be felt everywhere. But if peace is rooted, the region could become a bridge – connecting continents, stimulating the potential of the trade and unlocking. The choice is great and the time to act is now.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not reflect the editorial board of Al Jazeera.
