The human mind is in a recession

Hello readers. For all interviews about artificial intelligence, the most effective computer on Earth remains a human brain.

It can perform the same number of operations per second as the world supercompute, but only requires the power of equivalent to the refrigerator bulbs.

For this week’s newsletter, I move from the usual macroeconomic analysis of the counter-consensus to explore the inortodox ideas: the economy of the human mind.

New research is a new research that emphasizes the importance of “brain capital” – the function of health, capacity and brain skills.

It may sound wool, but it is important for two reasons.

First, since the machinery for the industrial revolution is increasingly replacing human and routine cognitive tasks. Until 2030, a share of activities that people will predominantly provide will predominantly fall from about 50 percent to 33 percent today, according to the latest world economic forum A report on the future of jobs. This puts the comparative advantage of humanity in narrower areas of thinking.

Second, now we live longer. The state -defined pension is less relevant in economies focused on. The cognitive skills of the individual are long -term assets of physical strength.

But “brain capital” is under pressure.

Diseases that affect brain function – including mental health conditions, abuse of substances and neurological disorders – are estimated cost the global economy 5tn per year (approximately the size of the German economy in the nominal sense). It is expected to increase it to 16tn to 2030.

According to the World Health Organization, depression is the leading cause of disability in the world. Its prevalence rose 89 percent Since 1990. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementia increased by 161 percent, mainly due to the aging of the population.

Problems are arranged in age distribution. There is a bulge in healthy years lost due to poor mental well -being among the traditional “working age” carrier. But even in retirement, other neurological disorders are pointing.

The brain capacity is also squeezed. “Our mental lives are more fragmented and scattered than ever before,” said Dan Nixon, an expert in “attention economy” – which models attention as a scarce resource of great demand. “Applications, warnings and notifications are locked in a constant battle for recording and bringing in our view.”

The digital universe is estimated to be doubled in size every two years, with 2.5 Quintillion bytes of data that are created every day. A large part of this is now at our fingertips.

Daily screen time on devices – like a computer, laptops, tablets, mobile phones, TVs and playing consoles – increased from 9 hours in 2012 at 11 o’clock in 2019, and time spent on mobile phones increases by approximately two hours . According to a global study. (And after pandemic he received a bump.)

Growing requirements for our attention are limited by our ability to supply it. This was emphasized by Thaixeira, a former professor at the Harvard Business School. His research has shown how The cost of attention He became, using the price of gaining 1,000 impressions on TV ads during Super Bowl and American first time as proxy. Over time, they both grew up, especially with the growth of the internet use, as competition for consumer attention has spread to other media.

Of course, the screen increase time also means spending more time to access news, research and fun. But an attempt to absorb too much content has negative side effects.

“Constantly exposure to information and notices can overcome our cognitive abilities,” said Mithu Storoni, author of the book HypereshedA book on the optimization of our brain. “Turning between stimuli reduces the range of our attention, and overload can contribute to mental fatigue, weakened memory and increased stress.”

Indeed, there is a connection between overload and brain health. The great use of social media was Connected with Higher level of depression, especially in younger cohorts. High screen time can also exacerbated symptoms of adhd -ai is associated with Higher risk from dementia.

Digital technology also has an effect on the third element of the “capital brain” – skills.

In addition to technological and AI related skills, employer surveyed In WeF, he said that creativity, resistance and analytical thinking are among the main competences that will probably increase over the next five years.

These are also skills tense to press the brain capacity. Digital distractions can prevent creative thinking, and stress and anxiety from information overload can be reduced. (Nixon mentioned “Unsuman understanding the impulse” – reaching for the phone, for no reason – launched by a dopamine hit we experience when approaching digital content.)

What about analytical thinking? Great data, machine learning and wider approach to content supported our research capabilities. Still, even the basic skills of atrophied in the past decade seems to be the basic skills.

Oecd -ovi Research of adult skills shows that more developed economies have experienced a decline in literacy knowledge from improvement in the past decade (even after controlling demographic changes, such as immigration). As for the counter, the picture is more mixed – but still worrying.

David Robson, scientific writer and author of the book Intelligence traphas some theories:

Different studies propose This, after rising most of the 20th century, the average effect on intelligence tests began to stabilize or even fall in many countries. This can reflect changes in the ways we use our brain. For example, we now use our smartphones for most calculations, so we do not do some numerical skills regularly. The vocabulary also weakens, maybe because of changes in people’s reading habits.

Robson added that the skills that were not recorded in IQ tests, such as rationality and critical thinking, were more difficult to relate to the overall well -being. But these competences are also under pressure.

Several studies Point out that the algorithms of Feeda News and Clickbait can improve the bias by creating “the web echoes of the chamber” and misinformation. Both are also connected to growing political polarization. In America, the feelings of the voter about the economy are reliably turning on the basis of their alignment with the president. Gallup’s economic confidence index points out, but also shows a general increase in polarity over time. Higher exposure to news that confirms someone’s position on the network is a explanation.

Then there is “Google effect“, Where we treat the search engine as a form of memory of random approaches and remember that they are less easy to search the facts.

All these critical thinking, in part, worsening our innate cognitive bias. This is not new; They even existed before the Internet. But the scale and intensity are now immensely greater. In this environment, it is easier to consciously or subconsciously outsourcing the decision elsewhere, which has implications that guarantee deeper consideration. (Recently researchers at Cambridge University Warned that Talk agents AI could develop the ability to influence our “intentions”.)

What is the climb? A wider approach to information, global improvements in education and better nutrition enhanced the brain capital. But trends in brain health, growing requirements for our attention and forces undermine our critical thinking.

The human mind is a resource that needs to be strengthened to support long -term benefits, growth and innovation, especially since technology plays a greater role in our lives and economies. As the world focuses on piles of trillion in artificial intelligence, it is wise not to lose sight of a refund that comes from investing in real intelligence.

Thoughts? Refutation? Send me a message on freelunch@ft.com or on x @tejparikh90.

Food for thinking

Has World War II helped build a foundation for US biomedicine innovation? New National Office for Economic Research Working is considered to be thus emphasizing the long -term effects that are coordinated and applied by oriented research on science and technology.