Alice Weidel, Chancellor of the candidate, is the ultimate right alternative to the German (AFD) political party, tells supporters as he waves the German flag on the launch of the AFD election campaign.
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The German End Right Party is dominated by surveys in the eastern region of the country less than two weeks before the Federal elections of February 2nd. Economic concern played a role in its popularity.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the economy in eastern Germany collapsed widely while local companies and companies failed and unemployment increased. Despite the fact that the Federal Government was consumed by hundreds of billions of euros with an enhancement of the economy of the region and developed its infrastructure, restlessness left an acidic taste in many from the region.
“Since the 1990 transformation, economic insecurity has been a regular mood among part the population of East Germany,” CNBC Maneskircher, a political scientist at that Dresden, told CNBC.
This was played in the hands of the German alternative Fuer Deutschland (AFD) and other marginal parties that are historically prone to force far better in East Germany.
The Germans will give two votes to the polls next week: one for which the candidate will directly represent their constituency and one for the party.
The latest dial and modeling of Yougov Voting in the constituency shows some right -wing blue wall in the east of Germany. In most eastern electorate units, candidates for AFD are in leadership. This, however, is not the case in the whole country.
CDU, with its associated party, CSU, leading the national polling stations With about 30% of the vote, while AFD is second to about 20%, which reflects increasing support to the party across the country. AFD scored just over 10% of the vote in last Federal choices.
It is unlikely that they will join the next ruling coalition, as the main parties have so far refused to partners with AFD.
Economic perception in relation to reality
After the German re -unification after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the economy of East Germany was characterized by lower revenues, greater unemployment and weaker growth than the West.
These issues have gone out to the great extent, and factors such as economic growth and unemployment are no longer the main concern, according to Holger Schmieding, the main economist in Berenberg.
The German IFO Institute for Economic Research Projects 0.7% of Economic Growth in East Germany This year, more than expected for the country general. Data The German Federal Employment Agency shows that the unemployment rate in East Germany is more than halved by its maximum, and the gap compared to unemployment in the West is suddenly reduced.
In some ways, the East German State are actually in front of its western colleagues, Schmieding said.
“Adapted to live costs, the East German standards are no longer significant below those in the west. Infrastructure is usually newer and in better form than in most parts of the West,” he told CNBC.
However, the inhabitants of East Germany still have a negative perception of the economy, according to 2024. Research conducted German Economic Institute (IW). Less than one -third of respondents in eastern Germany said they were pleased with how the labor market developed, and only one of five people said they believed they live in a growth growth region.
Matthias Diermeier, head of research units for democracy, society and a market economy at IW, told CNBC that, although the AFD supporters are just a little more concerned about their personal economic situation, compared to others “above.”
The vast majority of AFD voters say they are strongly concerned about the wider economy, while those who support other parties are at the other end of this spectrum, Diermeier added.
AFD exploits economic insecurity
Despite what IW is called the clear economic compensation procedure, there are inequality between East and West Germany, Diermeier noted.
“This is perceived as unjust, unjustly … The supporters of the edge parties, but it is also a feeling that are very strongly activated by these political actors,” he explained, adding that the far right worked on to launch previously existing feelings of economic uncertainty, “to be” a second -class citizen, “and a social fall among voters.
“And they do it very successfully,” Diermeier said.
At the same time, the AFD calls into question the accuracy of positive economic news by the point of perception that the economy does not make it good to play “the easy game” claiming that the mainstream parties, the agency for statistics and other bodies that control the state of the voters misconceptions, he said.
AFD did not respond to the CNBC request for comment.
Tu Dresden’s Weisskircher also noted that the historical context is a significant factor.
“The economy is important, rather because of the sense of long-term insecurity and vague economic appearances in the region that had severe economic problems in the 1990s and the early 2000s, with high unemployment rates, among other questions,” he said.
Anti-immigration, anti-estelition, anti -ceptal change
Not only are economic worries encourage the success of AFD to eastern Germany.
The proportion of immigration is much higher in eastern Germany, and the main parties have less loyal bases in the region, where they were not present before the national re -unification, Weisskircher said.
Skepticism regarding the climate change and green energy policies are also part of the AFD campaign. Wind turbulent topics have become a controversial topic, with AFD chief candidate Alice Weidel for the upcoming elections invited to be demolished.
AFD also positions itself as a party representing those who are backward.
An increasing number of East Germans are leaving more rural regions in favor of the major cities, explained Berenberg’s Schmieding, and this was measured by local companies, services and development. Those left in these areas are the main target for the rhetoric of AFD, and as IW -Diermeier noted, research has shown that these demographics are prone to voting for the far right.
