A well-known market strategist who called Dot-com Bubble warns that US sections are “serious risk” because the optimism of technological analyst begins acidic
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Albert Edwards warns that decreasing the optimism of analysts for US technological shares could mean problems.
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Historically speaking, the optimism of analysts has led to poor performance on the market.
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The capitalization of technology now exceeds the level of DOT-COM bubbles, leaving the market vulnerable, he said.
Societe General Strategist Albert Edwards has long been skeptical AI stock in the US -u could fill in hype surrounding them. Now the shares -covering analysts seem to be suspected.
In a note with a client published on Thursday, Edwards often wearing a series of charts that he believes that investors should take a break because the shares remained close to all time maximums. They show the optimism of analysts performed in technological stocks, supported by an impressive set of markets – development, which he said is a “serious risk” shares.
Here are some of them. The first is the 12-month moving average of the percentage of analysts that upgrade the prognosis of earnings per share. It declined with about 58% to 50% from the beginning of 2024, but Naddaq 100 continued the rush. Historically speaking, such in optimism coincided with the fall below the Naddaq 200-day moving average.
“If the rapid decline of optimism analyst for Nasdaq 100 is all that needs to be gone, the tide goes out quickly,” Edwards wrote. “Indeed, it’s less miracle macro that the index is still traded above its 200 MAV, let alone for record heights.”
There was also a non -assassination between the expectations of analysts to make money and how well earned earnings, and the reality was lagging behind. Now the expectations seem to start turning to the south as the earnings are flattened and lagged behind.
And estimates for the S&P Composite 1500 began to go down for the first time from their chatgpt-water jump.
“It’s a chart below that that investors should be really nervous,” Edwards wrote. “Regardless of the” Blips “from the Games played around the reporting rounds, analytical optimism for the S&P 500 was a number of lower peaks and lower lowest lowest.
Again, Edwards emphasizes, the problem with the original expectations is that the prospect of investors is already in lush extremes, and all that is missing from these extremes is a failure.
“In the usual times, this would not be a serious threat to investors in capital, but it is potentially a big risk when we are in estimates and optimism of high nose.”
Here’s how they made their way to how many technological sector stocks and American stocks. Technical shares now make up a higher percentage of the market than during DOT-com bubbles-which Edwards is known for calling US shares are now exaggerated 75% of global market limit.
