Will Iran make a nuclear bomb while Trump is in power in the US? | News about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Tehran, Iran – Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States promises Iran a difficult path that could lead to different outcomes when it comes to relations with the West, analysts say.

US leaders, along with the Israelis, have openly discussed military strikes against Iran’s top nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure such as power plants and oil and petrochemical facilities.

Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has held large-scale military exercises, mostly focused on defending sensitive locations.

A shift, but where?

For more than two decades, the relationship between Iran and the West has been largely defined by the development of that country’s nuclear program and efforts to prevent it from obtaining a bomb. Tehran has consistently maintained that it is not seeking weapons of mass destruction.

Recently, the highest political and military authorities in Iran discussed the possibility changing Tehran’s officially stated policy giving up nuclear weapons amid growing security threats.

There seem to be two schools of thought in Tehran: one seems open to the possibility of US engagement, including the nuclear program, and the other is vocal about the pursuit of weapons, especially given the erosion of Israel’s deterrence and the backsliding of its regional allies, he noted. is Naysan Rafati, a senior Iran analyst at the Washington-based Crisis Group.

“But if the former camp prevails, Washington’s willingness to engage with Tehran will still be needed – and given the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability, there is likely to be some inclination to press the regime harder rather than make concessions.”

Iran lost one of the tenets of its defense strategy with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and blows given to his “axis of resistance” throughout the region.

The country is also under extensive sanctions that are adversely affecting its already struggling economy, with the national currency falling and high inflation, with the energy crisis.

Amid difficult economic conditions, the government of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is expected to send their diplomats to Europe later this month for talks with E3 – France, Germany and the UK – it seems it wants to further engage with the West.

The overall framework being discussed appears similar to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers – lifting some economic pressure on Iran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

However, the new framework has not yet been formulated, and it seems that all talks so far have been consultations aimed at clarifying positions.

Appetites for a new deal

Things are different this time, compared to when Iran and the West negotiated for years in the lead-up to the nuclear deal.

In 2018, Trump abandoned the JCPOA and introduced harsh sanctions against Iran. He also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top general and chief architect of its regional axis, five years ago.

“Unlike the first Trump administration, the Europeans will be much more attuned to the policy that the US chooses because the Europeans have in a way supported a campaign of maximum pressure themselves in recent years because of the growing tensions they have with Tehran,” Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East Program and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, he said.

Major events should take place this year that will better clarify the direction of Iran’s nuclear program, Abas Aslani, a senior fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera.

Several clauses of the JCPOA have expiredsaid Aslani, so there is an increased willingness to negotiate a new deal – especially since the JCPOA’s main closure clause, which allows the West to reinstate any lifted United Nations sanctions on Iran (retrospective measure), is set to expire in October 2025.

Geranmayeh said E3 is keeping the snapback as the last tool they have to exploit Iran, and they are aware that once used, it can set off a “very unpredictable chain of escalating events.”

As such, Europe will use the time remaining until October to prevent escalation and encourage diplomacy.

However, it remains a big question mark how Europeans will respond if Trump demands an immediate lifting of Iran sanctions by the E3 in exchange for compromises on transatlantic issues affecting European security, the expert said.

“Either we’re going to move towards significantly higher tensions or some kind of, albeit limited, agreement on the nuclear program, depending on whether Iran and the US reach some kind of understanding,” Aslani said.

There is also the possibility that Tehran and Washington will sit down for direct negotiations, which Iran has refused to do due to the unilateral withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA.

“If the Trump administration tries too hard to make concessions, then it will be extremely difficult to reach an agreement even if there is a broader understanding,” he said.

Iran’s nuclear program

The latest information shows that Iran has not yet started building a bomb.

However, a year after Trump left the JCPOA, he began increasing the level of enrichment and the number of centrifuges, repeating the process after Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities and international censorship.

In recent months, it has installed thousands of new centrifuges as a reaction to the passing of another resolution of condemnation against her introduced by the West at the governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

It is now enriching uranium to 60 percent, a relatively short technical step from the more than 90 percent required for a bomb, and the IAEA reports that Tehran has enough fissile material for multiple bombs.

Increased nuclear activity gives Iran some leverage when it comes to talking to Trump, but it also comes with significant risks, the Crisis Group’s Rafati said.

“Tehran is enriching itself almost at weapons level and with almost zero breakthrough time, which blurs the line between a situation that is worrisome and alarming enough for the US and/or Israel to consider military action,” he told Al Jazeera.

Nuclear breakout time is the time required to produce enough fissile material for a bomb. If it opts for a bomb, Iran would have to design and assemble the weapon, integrate it with a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and successfully test it.

We are in a short-term holding pattern as the “big elephant in the room” of Trump’s inauguration is days away and there is still no clear idea of ​​how his administration plans to shape its ties with Iran, according to senior analyst Geranmayeh.

“I think in the first few weeks of 2025, Iran is unlikely to significantly escalate its nuclear activities unless President Trump aggressively redoubles the maximum pressure campaign,” Geranmayeh told Al Jazeera.

She added that Iran’s nuclear activity could cool down a bit if the US prioritizes diplomatic talks aimed at de-escalation, meaning two very different scenarios could play out depending on where Trump positions himself.