What Virginia’s Special Election Tells Us About Bigger Ballot Box Fights Coming in 2025, 2026
The Democrats kept their narrow majority in the Virginia Legislature as they won two of three special elections on Tuesday in the first showdowns at the 2025 ballot box.
Competitions that were closely followed by the political world were considered the first indicator of voter mood since Trump’s president-elect a landslide victory in November, in an election in which Republicans also won control of the US Senate and retained their fragile majority in the House of Representatives.
They are also seen as an early barometer for high-profile gubernatorial contests later this year in Virginia and New Jersey and the battle for Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
The Associated Press predicts that Democrats will win both special elections in Loudon County, in northern Virginia.
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In a special election for the state Senate, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, currently a member of the state House, defeated Republican Tumay Harding. The seat became vacant after Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam was elected to Congress in November.
And in a separate race for Srinivasan’s vacant House seat, Democrat JJ Singh, a small business owner and former congressional aide, bested Republican Ram Venkatachalam.
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Loudon County, on the outer fringes of the metropolitan area surrounding the nation’s capital, has been at the epicenter of a national debate in recent years over bathroom policies for transgender students and allowing them to play women’s sports.
The once Republican-dominated district has trended Democratic over the past decade as Loudon’s population has continued to grow. Vice President Kamala Harris easily carried the district in November’s race for the White House, even as Trump improved on his results four years ago.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
A third special election was held Tuesday in a state Senate district west of Virginia’s capital Richmond, where Republican Luther Cifers defeated Democrat Jack Trammell.
The seat became vacant when Trump-backed state Sen. John McGuire narrowly beat U.S. Rep. Bob Goode in a contested GOP primary last June before winning Congress in November.
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Democrats will maintain their 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and 51-49 control of the state’s House of Delegates during Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s final year in office.
Youngkin got energized Republicans across the country three years ago, as the first candidate to come from the party’s business wing, he bested former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in 2021 to become the first GOP candidate in a decade to win a gubernatorial election in a once-volatile state that had flipped over the previous decade according to the democrats.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin speaks in front of Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Salem, Virginia, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)
Virginia is unique because of its state law that prevents governors from serving two consecutive four-year terms, so Youngkin cannot run for re-election next year.
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Virginia and New Jersey are the only two states in the country to hold gubernatorial elections the year after a presidential election. Because of this, both contests receive a lot of national attention, and Virginia in particular is often seen as a vanguard of the national political climate and how Americans feel about the White House party.
