Wall Street this year still sees two reductions of the rate, but belief becomes weaker, reveals a CNBC survey

In the midst of the insecurity of fiscal policies and the persistence of inflation, respondents in the FED research have called their expectations for reducing interest rates, but they still believe that the Central Bank will make it easier this year.

Among the 25 respondents, 65% see two rates of rate in 2025, equal to the number Pencified by Federal Reserve Officers in their recent forecasts and about the same as the expectations of the market of the future. But this is 78% in the previous survey, while 61% forecast at least one decrease in 2026, which is a drop with 70% in December.

“I just don’t see (FED), who currently trusts how to continue to reduce the rate from here, especially as we wait for Trump’s tariff and tax policy,” said Peter Boockvar, Chief Director of Investing in Bleakley Financial Group.

The Fed Funds rate has been reported to end the year at 3.96%, 12 base points higher than in December, and 3.6% in 2026, 16 base points increased. The basic point is 0.01%. The terminal rate, or long -term nominal rate, increased again, and now it was 3.4%, a dozen percentage points higher than December, and three tenths higher than March 2024.

The reduced odds for reducing the rate occurs due to the fall of the likelihood of recession, increasing the prognosis of inflation, and the mixture of attitudes on inflationary and the increase in the effects of the predicted policy policies of the new administration.

By emphasizing the promise and uncertainty in the coming months, the respondents gave sharp mixed examinations President Donald Trump’s economic policy. Two of his promises – tariffs and immigration – are seen to increase inflation and reduce growth. Two other policies – deregulation and reduction of taxes – are considered positive for growth and either neutral or positive to reduce inflation.

For example, 77% sees tariffs as negative for inflation, and 73% believe they are negative for growth. But 55% believes that deregulation will reduce inflation and 68% believe it will increase growth.

“Reasonable economists cannot be agreed so they can be inflated tariffs or a decrease in immigration, but they are inflationary,” said Guy Lebas, a major strategist with a fixed income in Janney Montgomery Scott.

Mark Zandi, Mody’s Chief Moody’s Analytics, added: “While the American economy is on a strong fundamental ground, much more tariffs and significant deportations of immigrants will reduce it and take it too far, it could be undermined.”

But Drew T. Matus, the main market strategist in Metlife Investment Management, opposed: “Regulatory relief is a fundamental feature of the incoming administration plans and will be a key initiator of an increasing economic activity.”

Richard I. Sichel, a senior investment strategist in Philadelphia Trust Co., see broadly positive effects. “The new administration has launched everything, including the stock market,” he said. “Optimism and risk takeover have increased. Lower taxes and less superfluous regulations, along with the current success of technological innovation, promote greater efficiency and profit.”

Asked to evaluate the total effects of Trump’s policies that are expected to be adopted, 64% say that it will be somewhat or very inflator, 23% believe that in no case there will be no inflation on inflation, and 14% say that it will be a bit deflammatory.

However, 60% believes that it will be a bit or very positive for growth, 9% consider them neutral, and 32% believe it will be a bit negative.

This appearance is reflected in actual forecasts where the 12-month look for Consumer prices index He pushed up to 2.7% for this year, with 2.6% in December, and at 2.6% for the next year with 2.5%. GDP forecasts increased to 2.4% by 2025, an increase of 3 base points, but the rest were unchanged to 2.1% by 2026.

The likelihood of recession in the next 12 months fell to 23%, with 29%, equal to the level in February 2022.

When it comes to tariffs on Mexico and Canada, most believe that their adoption will depend on the negotiations, but that additional tariffs will be placed in China regardless of negotiations.

Trump’s recent comments where he is demanded that the Fed lower rates be Whether the respondents once again doubted that they would respect the independence of the Fed. Only 36% believe it will do it, which is a 56% decline in December.

“We could see the true independence test of the Fed during 2025, because the nominal growth could surprise the progress, potentially putting the Fed officially on hold or even forcing them to increase the rates,” said Richard Bernstein, Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO. “The president will not like the stable means with the higher Fed. The fight could follow.”

But Kathy Bostjancic, the main American economist across the country, said: “We are looking for a Fed that would be unwavering to political influence and stopped his cellar cycle, at least through the first half of this year.”

In the meantime, 64% say he does not believe that Trump will be successful in his plan to reduce inflation by increasing energy production and reducing energy prices.

“You can run a lease oil company, but you can’t make it,” said Robert Fry, a major economist of Robert Fry Economics. “Capital Discipline means that instead of:” Drill, Baby, Drill, “we will get,” drill? Maybe not. “