By Antoni Slodkowski and James Pomfret
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) – For years, the U.S. government has urged China to show “restraint” in pushing its claims on Taiwan and to drop military threats to bring the democratically-ruled island under its control.
Now – say some Chinese commentators – the strength of that long-standing American message has been undermined by the threats of the newly elected American president, Donald Trump, to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, if necessary by force. Trump takes office on January 20.
The implications of Trump’s comments for US policy towards Taiwan have been widely discussed on Chinese social media platforms and among foreign policy analysts in recent days.
While nothing in the military conflict over Taiwan is likely to change in the near future, some say Trump’s break with the norms of American diplomacy could open up space for China.
One China expert said Trump’s first term in office signaled that he views foreign policy as transactional in nature, and suggested he might be amenable to a deal on Taiwan.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said Trump’s threats to seize Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada should be taken seriously.
“In addition, we have to think about Trump’s transactional behavior, which he is also serious about. Many in China still see Trump as a deal maker, even on very difficult issues like the Taiwan issue,” he said.
China’s foreign ministry said it was “absurd” to try to link Greenland’s status with Taiwan.
“The Taiwan issue is China’s internal matter, and how to resolve it is the matter of the Chinese people,” it said in a statement sent to Reuters.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry, asked if Trump’s comments could encourage China to create trouble over Taiwan, said the Republic of China, the island’s official name, is a “sovereign and independent country.”
“Any violation of Taiwan’s sovereign status will not change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” the statement said.
Trump’s transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China has claimed Taiwan as part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
A limiting factor for Beijing is that the US is required by law to provide Taiwan with resources for self-defense, although it is unclear whether US forces would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of a war with China due to the policy of “strategic ambiguity”.
In his first term, Trump offered strong support for Taiwan, including regulating arms sales. But during last year’s campaign, Trump said Taiwan should pay the US to defend it. Taiwan has repeatedly said it is committed to increasing its defense spending.
Truth be told, the Taiwan issue is very different from the situation with Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal: in the eyes of China, Taiwan is already legally Chinese territory destined to “return to the motherland”. Taiwan rejects these claims.
Even so, Trump’s comments about Greenland caused an uproar on Chinese social media, which is subject to censorship.
“If the United States annexes Greenland, China must take over Taiwan,” Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at the City University of Hong Kong, wrote on the microblog Weibo (NASDAQ: ).
One commentator on a blog run by Chinese search engine Baidu (NASDAQ: ) said that if Trump does move toward Greenland, China should “seize the opportunity to take Taiwan back.”
“Trump seems to be serious, so we should see what we can get out of this,” wrote a person who writes as “Hongtu Shumeng.”
Chen Fei, an associate professor at the School of Politics and International Studies of Central China Normal University, wrote on the Chinese portal NetEase (NASDAQ: ) that, just like Greenland for Trump, Taiwan is a key security interest for China.
But the two issues are not the same because what Trump is doing is directly threatening the sovereignty of another country, he added.
“Taiwan is an internal territory of China and a purely internal Chinese matter. It has nothing to do with the sovereignty of another country.”
But Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the German Marshall Fund in the United States, said there are other factors that weigh more heavily on Chinese President Xi Jinping, particularly his assessment of the country’s military capabilities and the likely costs China would incur if it used force against Taiwan. .
“I doubt Beijing will draw parallels between Greenland and Taiwan,” she said. “The Chinese believe that Taiwan has always been part of China – they will not pay money for it and no government in Taiwan will agree to be bought.'”
Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former US Defense Department official, also said it was “pretty preposterous” to think Trump’s Greenland comments could embolden China’s claims on Taiwan.
“But it seems to me that if President Trump refuses to … rule out the use of military force to achieve and protect U.S. interests, I think that kind of statement and determination would further deter Beijing from taking any action that would prompt the U.S. to take military action to protect Taiwan,” he said.
“It’s a pretty powerful deterrent for China.”
