Iran’s military forces were engaged in four days of extensive exercises on Wednesday that many believe are essentially preparations for how the country might respond to a US, Israeli or combined attack on its nuclear facilities.
Brigadier General Mohammad-Nazar Azimi, commander of the powerful General Staff of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Najaf Ashraf West, said the exercises across the country included “new weapons and equipment”.
Azimi also said that the exercises will test the capabilities of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force, whose mission is to maintain domestic security.
The war games are likely aimed not only at demonstrating Iran’s ability to respond and defend against an attack from outside the country, but also to ensure that the Basis are ready to quell any domestic uprising against the country’s Islamic clerical rulers that might be sparked by such an attack.
Some Iranian analysts critical of the government who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity said the exercises could be a show of power by Iran prompted by dramatic changes in the balance of power in the Middle East – with Israel seriously incapacitating Iran-backed groups Gaza and Lebanonand the long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown by rebel forces.
Iranian state media
dr. Yasser Ershadmanesh, a conservative analyst who teaches at Tehran University of Law and International Affairs, told CBS News on Wednesday that “the IRGC should have had this military exercise to show them that Iran is ready in all aspects.”
Ershadmanesh said Israel and its Western allies are putting pressure on Tehran and pose an “imminent threat … so this exercise will show Israel and the US that Iran is fully prepared, and will send a message to the world and the region about Iran’s power and readiness.”
Iranian leaders are likely to worry that President-elect Donald Trump, once he returns to office on January 20, will significantly increase that pressure by imposing further economic sanctions and possibly supporting an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear and/or missile facilities.
Trump and his close advisers have been considering options to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon — something the president-elect has said he will not allow.
Iranian state media
Iranian officials have long said they do not intend to pursue nuclear weapons, but since Trump pulled the U.S. out of the international nuclear deal with Tehran during his first term, Iran has steadily stepped up its nuclear enrichment programsmoving the country closer to the possibility of making an atomic bomb.
The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Trump and his team discussed the the possibility of preventive airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of that planning.
One of the key features of the ongoing “Great Prophet 19” military exercise was a simulated airstrike on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, with fictitious attacks showing the enemy hitting the plant with a bunker-busting bomb – the kind of weapon Israel or the US could use if they targeted to Iran’s underground nuclear work.
Iran’s semi-official SNN news agency said the ongoing drill, which began on January 4 and involves air, ground and naval forces and weapons systems, is intended to test Iran’s home-made air defense systems, including a variety of short and medium-range missiles range.
Among the weapons being tested in the exercises is the Dezful surface-to-air missile system, which is an upgraded version of the Russian-made Tor M1 system. The system can fire up to two missiles simultaneously from mobile launch vehicles and is designed to shoot down aircraft or ballistic missiles.
IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini previously said the exercise would also have an electronic warfare dimension.
