Fire conditions in LA have done 35 percent more likely thanks to climate change, the researchers say
Fire that ravaged the neighborhood in Los Angeles, killing 28 people and burning over 16,000 homes and buildings are not one -off, according to a new fast analysis. And researchers say it is now significantly more likely to happen due to climate change.
The shocking scenes of the fire erected by the city blocks in the third largest metropolis in North America are driven home as close to the climate crisis brings extreme times to people and communities. AND A new studyFrom the World Time Atribration group (WWA), he says the conditions behind the fire were about 35 percent more likely compared to the pre -industrial times.
If global warming continues along the current trajectories, the fire conditions will be 35 percent more likely by 2100 – painting a dark picture for the future of La -ai southern California.
“Without a faster transition from fossil fuels that heat the planet, California will continue to become getting hotter, dry and burning,” said Clair Barnes, co-author of WWA reports and researcher at Imperial College London.
As the South California gets a little necessary rain, the new analysis suggests that the conditions that have led to the fire in January are 35 percent more likely because of the climate changes on the human units. And the more likely these fires will become more expensive insurance for everyone.
The study, conducted by an international team of 32 researchers, used global climatic models to project the weather conditions have changed from pre -industrial times. To be published quickly, the study was not reviewed or published in a scientific journal, but is based on established Attribution methods.
These conditions are expected to happen once in 17 years, although they will happen more often because global temperatures are still rising.
Simply put, climate change raised rain and increased hot and dry conditions that turned the vegetation around La into fuel, and then strong winds made these fires go where they usually do. All this will become more likely because global temperatures are still rising.
Delayed winter rain extends the fire season
“The delayed start of winter rain is a significant problem because it ends up extending the length of the fire season, which means that there are many more opportunities for weather events such as these wind events to match the burning,” said John Abatzoglou, professor of climatology at the University of California Merced and one from the study co -author.
He noted that when all these things were lined up, there is a higher risk that one of the resulting fires becomes “very difficult to suppress.”
Dry conditions appeared after a few years when California saw more rain, which led to more vegetation in the area. Abatzoglou says this means that there is an even more fuel at its disposal, allowing the expansion of the fire.
And the basic conditions are set to get worse. Low rains from October to December are now 2.4 times more likely, according to a WWA report, which increase the risk of dry vegetation prone to fire. This also means that dry conditions match the strong winds of Santa Ana, who helped spread these fires and the peak in general between December and January.
In total, dry, conditions prone to fire in southern California are extended by about 23 days each year, increasing the risk of cities like LI, according to the study.
Abatzoglou says he hopes that destructive fires will act as an invitation to wake up to get the state to face these conditions the next time it happens.
“Because it will be next time.”
