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Watch this space. That was the essence of Kemi Badenoch New Year’s message into the country. Although often bland, these letters should offer a glimpse of how the parties hope to frame the debate in the coming months. The Tory leader said nothing more than “please stay tuned, your call is important to us”.
Politics abhors a vacuum, and while no one expects Badenoch to have worked out her entire platform two months into the job, she doesn’t have as much time as she thinks. Many people observe this space, but not with tolerance. The Tories are alarmed by the energy and attention Nigel Farage’s UK Reform is generating and are already debating how much time it has left.
One serious and well-connected observer recently believed that Boris Johnson was an equal candidate for the next prime minister. He is not alone in this argument and a look at the former Tory leader’s recent autobiography leaves little doubt that the man himself has not ruled out the possibility.
Perhaps such talk is fueled by the imminent (and once improbable) return of Donald Trump, or by a sense of crisis that brings an unusual dimension to Western politics. Johnson fits that mold, although there are compelling reasons why it won’t happen. All his closest supporters left Westminster. He lacks a base in the country and whatever the British equivalent of the Mag audience is, he looks up to Farage. Above all, he reminds voters why the Tory brand has been discredited.
But what such chatter illuminates is the depth of the conservative funk. Boris’s theory is ultimately a bet on continued decline and despair. Once the defeated Tory party could slowly rebuild and wait for the pendulum to swing in their favor. But the rise of the Reformation deprives Badenoch of that time and space. Farage may be training his fire on Labour, but his first mission is to establish himself as the real opposition.
Badenoch’s first weeks were uninspiring, unfocused, and sometimes it was it even benefited Reform. While on her feet, Farage has been making headlines. Both GB News and the Telegraph, the two most important outlets for the right, now appear to be little more than extensions of his marketing operation. Membership grew and enjoyed Elon Musk’s blessing. Farage is social media savvy and has an eye for news. Even when he doesn’t win outright, he influences and changes the debate, most obviously on immigration.
Above all, there is an appetite for his message that the two major parties are failing – and that they are no different. In the last election, Labor and the Tories together won only 57 percent of the vote. The space for a penetrating disruptor seems to be expanding.
Already, prominent conservatives are talking about a deal what must be done with it in order to regain power. Even so, it is possible to overcome some of the hype. Although they are likely to enjoy gains in local elections over the next 18 months, reform still has a long way to go. Recent public opinion poll electrified her allies by predicting that she could win 71 seats in the next election. Yet that same poll also showed the Tories almost doubling their current numbers. And as seriously as such an early vote can be taken, its essential message was one of disappointment for Labour.
An alternative interpretation could be that Reform appears as a nationalist facsimile of the Liberal Democrats (the parallel is also acknowledged by Farage), but on the right side of politics, a pirate party with geographic and demographic support and potential in areas where the Conservatives are struggling to oppose Labour. The reform appeals to both left and right, including poorer and older Labor voters. Ideological inconsistencies abound, but challengers are generally punished less for it.
For all the talk of victory, the real goal of Reform remains to be good enough to maintain the balance of power and force a change in the UK’s electoral system, which can then permanently reshape the political map.
None of this means underestimating the party’s potential, not least forcing other parties to follow its agenda. Its momentum is the spirit of politics yet to come. Its growth relies on an unpopular government and an unattractive opposition; polls show continued electoral fragmentation of the kind that allows parties to win seats with relatively low vote shares. But while Labor has little time to regain support, Badenoch does not. It’s foolish to write her off now, but even supporters suggest she has a year to 18 months to prove she can rebuild the party.
It may be that some sort of agreement (or just a non-aggression pact) is necessary until the next election. But Badenoch need not panic now. In addition, any agreement leading to electoral reform is not in the interest of her party. What she needs to do is change Reform’s narrative by bringing conservatives back into the national conversation as the primary voice of the opposition and on issues other than immigration. Fortunately, Labor is gifted with opportunities for the economy that dovetail with its deregulatory, low-tax instincts. The Tories, and Badenoch in particular, need to prosecute the case against Rachel Reeves’ tax increase. If it looks effective here, you will get time to concretize your plan.
Badenoch was chosen because the Tories felt she had the charisma and conviction to win them a hearing. But the right is rising up around her and she doesn’t have the luxury of leisure to figure it out while a grateful nation waits and watches.
