Champions League 2024/25: Why it matters where teams finish in the league stage table and the impact of the knockout rounds | Football news
We’re in the opening stages of the new league phase of the Champions League – with five British teams looking to achieve different feats in the new format.
Liverpool don’t seem to mind the league’s new 36-team format – they have won each of their first seven games and need just one point to secure top spot in the table.
But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team in the final game? Not after Barcelona’s dramatic 5-4 win against Benfica. Hansi Flick’s side are three points behind the Reds, but currently have a better goal difference.
This is because there is an incentive to keep winning because every single place matters in this new Champions League format.
Read on below to see all the changes to the rest of the new Champions League structure and what British teams need to do to qualify…
What are the changes for the British teams in the last two games?
Liverpool they have guaranteed their place in the round of 16 and will bypass the play-off round after 2-1 win against Lille.
Both Arsenal and Aston Villa they are tied with 13 points and are among the top eight in third and eighth place. They will likely need to win their final games to ensure they go straight into the last 16 as top eight.
It will take a lot to swing Manchester City and Celtic for them to finish in the top eight, but both currently hold the knockout spots.
Celtic are a place and a point above City in 23rd place. Pep Guardiola’s team is only above the elimination places due to a positive goal difference.
One win in the last two games could be enough to secure a place in the play-off round, but they will want to win both matches to ensure they stay in the competition. The playoff rounds are held on 11/12. February and 18/19 February.
Who qualifies from the league stage?
In order to achieve automatic qualification to the round of 16 in March, teams must finish in the top eight.
Those placed ninth to 24th enter a two-legged play-off round in February, with the winners taking the other eight places in the round of 16.
Those who finish from ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so they will play the second game at home. Those from 17 to 24 will not be seeded, so they have the first leg at home.
Teams finishing anywhere from 25th to 36th will be eliminated from this season’s competition, without access to the Europa League.
Okay, but if we’re in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?
Yes, there is. The way the Champions League stage works is that your final league position gives you a specific path – and specific opponents – into the draw for the knockout stages.
The chart below shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time in history, the knockout rounds are decided at the league stage – without separate draws for the round of 16, quarter-finals and beyond.
For example, teams that finish first or second in the league stage will face the team that finishes 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.
Contrast that with a team that finishes seventh or eighth, who could play a team that finishes 23rd or 24th, but also risk facing a team in ninth or 10th – which could be a big European combination .
The advantage for the team that finishes first or second is that they will be guaranteed to play a team in the ‘middle’ of the final Champions League table. Finishing in a lower position carries the risk of playing a better side.
Is it really an advantage to finish on top?
It’s not necessary. Especially this season.
The early struggles of the likes of Real Madrid, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain mean Europe’s top team could end up in ‘mid-table’ of the Champions League table – putting them up against one of the most successful sides.
Liverpool are currently top of the league table – but the teams that started this game in 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Benfica, Monaco, Sporting CP and Feyenoord – with PSG, Real Madrid and Manchester City below of those teams on the table.
If the top teams continue to underperform in the league stage as expected, it could lead to big draws among the last 16, taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible places.
Is there a difference between ninth and 24th place?
Again, yes. The big one. And it all has to do with the play-off.
The new Champions League format means that the ninth-placed team faces the 24th-placed team in the play-off round. The tenth game is the 23rd, the 11th game is the 22nd, and so on.
If you just miss out on a top eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst sides who qualified from the league stage. The more you complete, the “easier” the game is.
But then again, if teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain are struggling in the league stage, you could have the best teams facing each other in the playoff rounds.
Who are the supercomputer favorites of the Champions League?
Liverpool they are currently the favorites to win the Champions League and Slot’s side have been given a 21.2 percent chance of lifting the trophy in Munich after a great start to the season.
Arsenal they are second favorites with 14.4 percent – just ahead of Inter Milan with 12 percent.
Barcelona they are the third favorites with an 8.3 percent chance – doc Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Manchester City and PSG also enter the top 10.
Aston Villa they have a 0.8 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is four times more likely than Celtic to 0.2 percent.
When is the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stage?
- Playoff knockout round: 11./12. February and 18/19 February 2025
- Round of 16: 4./5. March and 11/12 March 2025
- Quarter-finals: 8./9. April and 15/16 April 2025
- Semi-finals: 29./30. April and 6/7 May 2025
- Final: May 31, 2025
Where will the 2025 Champions League final be held?
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place in Munich at the Allianz Arena on 31 May 2025.
