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Ceasefire in Gaza: What can we expect?


Reuters

Almost the entire population of Gaza has been displaced by the war

Israel and Hamas are believed to be close to a deal that could end the war in Gaza and allow the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

It would be the most dramatic shift in the 15-month war, which began when the Palestinian armed group Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023.

What could be in the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?

We hope that the ceasefire agreement will mean an agreement to stop the war raging in Gaza.

An exchange of hostages and prisoners is also expected.

Hamas took 251 hostages when it attacked Israel in October 2023. It still holds 94 hostages, although Israel believes only 60 are alive.

Israel is expected to release about 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom have been imprisoned for years, in exchange for the hostages.

How would a ceasefire work?

This ceasefire is expected to take place in three phases, once the agreement is announced.

Details are still being negotiated. Until the deal is finalized, it is subject to change.

The first stage

A Palestinian official told the BBC that in the first phase, 34 hostages – expected to be civilians – would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

The three hostages would be released immediately, and the rest of the exchange would last six weeks.

During this phase, Israeli troops would also begin withdrawing from populated areas in Gaza.

A Palestinian official said detailed negotiations for the second and third phases would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.

The second phase

In the second phase, the remaining hostages – soldiers and reservists – would be released, in exchange for a certain number of Palestinian prisoners.

Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners believed to have been released by Israel, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. An Israeli official told the BBC that those convicted of murder would not be released into the occupied West Bank.

During this phase, Israel would also allow displaced people who are now in southern Gaza to return to the north.

Almost all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been forced to flee their homes because of the fighting.

The third phase

The third and final phase would involve rebuilding Gaza – something that could take years.

An Israeli official said Israeli forces would remain in a buffer, or safe, zone inside Gaza during any ceasefire.

Reuters

Hamas is still holding dozens of hostages, captured in the October 2023 attack on Israel

What are the unanswered questions about the contract?

It has taken months of painstaking indirect negotiations to get to this point, not least because Israel and Hamas completely distrust each other.

Hamas wanted a complete end to the war before releasing the hostages, which was unacceptable to Israel.

The ceasefire will effectively stop the war while its terms are implemented.

However, it is not clear whether this will mean that the war is over forever.

One of Israel’s key war goals was to destroy Hamas’s military and management capabilities. Although severely damaged by Israel, Hamas still has some capacity to operate and regroup.

It is also unclear which hostages are alive or dead or whether Hamas knows the whereabouts of all those missing.

For its part, Hamas has demanded the release of some prisoners that Israel says it will not release. This is believed to include those involved in the October 7 attacks.

It is also not known whether Israel will agree to withdraw from the buffer zone by a certain date or whether its presence there will be indefinite.

Any ceasefire is likely to be fragile.

Ceasefires between Israel and Hamas that had halted previous wars were shaken by the clashes and eventually broken.

The layout and complexity of this ceasefire means that even a small incident could turn into a major threat.

What happened on October 7, 2023 and what happened in Gaza?

Hundreds of Hamas-led gunmen have launched an unprecedented assault on southern Israel, breaching the border fence and targeting communities, police stations and military bases.

About 1,200 people were killed, and more than 250 hostages were returned to Gaza. Hamas also fired thousands of rockets at Israel.

Israel responded with a major military campaign, first by air and then by ground invasion. Since then, Israel has attacked targets across Gaza by land, sea and air, while Hamas has attacked Israel with rockets.

The Israeli offensive has devastated Gaza and led to severe food shortages, with aid barely reaching those who need it most. More than 46,600 people – most civilians – have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which is run by Hamas.



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