New Year. Time to think, make decisions and accurately predict where each team will finish at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
While we can’t predict exactly how many times you’ll use that awesome new gym membership over the next few months, or how strictly you’ll stick to that ‘new year, new me’ mantra, Opta League Prediction the model helps paint a picture of what the table might look like by the time May turns.
Using market betting odds and Opta Power Rankings, the model estimates the probability of each match’s outcome (win, draw or loss), based on historical and recent team performances.
These results are then used to simulate the remaining league fixtures thousands of times to see how often teams finished in each position to create a prediction for the final table.
So, as the Premier League reaches its halfway point, grab the last remnants of Boxing Day as we look at how the Premier League table could shape up in five months’ time.
Liverpool will lift the trophy
Somewhat unsurprisingly, Arne Slott’s side are at the top of the prediction pile, with a 91.3% chance of lifting the Premier League trophy.
The Reds are currently eight points clear, having lost just once so far this season in all competitions. Despite worrying things off the pitch – namely, uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool have been in terrific form.
They have won their last three league games in a row, scoring 14 goals in the process. They scored six goals against Tottenham on December 22 before scoring five without reply against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
Ending 2024 with a victory in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two wins in 14 games in all competitions. By their standards, City’s form has been pretty poor of late.
But while it seems highly unlikely that the champions will retain their Premier League crown this term, they are a side who can never really be written off.
Given their dominance in previous seasons, Opta still have a 40.8% chance of finishing fourth. They are currently in fifth place after ending the year with a much-needed 2-0 win over Leicester – a result manager Pep Guardiola called a “relief”.
Despite a high rise to second place this term, according to Opta, the high-flying Forest have no chance of repeating the Foxes’ title-winning heroics in 2015-16.
The prediction model gives them a 0% chance of finishing top, but predicts Nuna Espirito Santo’s side to finish the campaign in a respectable fifth place.
We are in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024
Drop zone
Unlike Forest, the predicted table makes for pleasant viewing for Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton fans.
All three sides who were promoted last term in the Championship are predicted to go straight back, with the struggling Saints having an 83.8% chance of staying at the bottom of the league.
New manager Ivan Juric said his style of football is similar to death metal music, but he will hope it is dead life in his team for the second half of the season.
Last half for Manchester United
United have been given a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new manager Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled for any kind of consistency in recent weeks, having won four, drawn one and lost five during the Portuguese manager’s time in charge.
Their next three fixtures – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately define their season.
Predicted Premier League table
According to Opti:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Aston Villa
8. Bournemouth
9. Tottenham
10. Fulham
11. Brighton
12. Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. West Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
