The stunning election victories of the new left-leaning president and his party have changed Sri Lanka’s political landscape – but the island’s cash-strapped new rulers are quickly realizing that campaign promises are easier to make than to keep.
Anura Kumar Dissanayake an extraordinary victory the presidential elections in September were soon followed by a victory for his National People’s Power (NPP) alliance in the parliamentary elections.
As the new year begins, he and his supporters want this to be a turning point for a country trying to recover from a devastating economic crisis and years of misrule.
However, they have limited room for maneuver to fulfill their promises to voters, whose expectations from the new government are high.
Since the financial meltdown in 2022, the economic recovery has been fragile and Sri Lanka is far from out of the woods.
The NPP won 159 seats in the 225-member assembly in November – an unprecedented two-thirds majority – giving Dissanayake a sweeping mandate to push through major economic and constitutional reforms.
However, even as the results came in, the new president had to prepare for a meeting with a visiting delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with whom the outgoing government agreed a $2.9bn (£2.31bn) bailout package. .
The deal with the IMF became controversial because it led to severe austerity measures, tax hikes and cuts to energy subsidies – which hit ordinary people hard.
During the campaign, Dissanayake and his alliance promised to renegotiate parts of the agreement with the IMF.
However, in his address to the new convocation of the Parliament, he made a U-turn.
“The economy is in such a state that it cannot handle even the slightest shock… There is no room for error,” Dissanayake said.
“This is not the time to discuss terms [of the IMF loan] good or bad, whether the agreement is in our favor or not… The process lasted about two years and we cannot start over.”
The convincing majority of voters for the NPP is considered the culmination of a popular uprising caused by the economic crisis. Uprising ousted president Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the summer of 2022, when Sri Lanka ran out of foreign currency and had problems importing food and fuel.
The country previously declared bankruptcy after defaulting on an external debt of around $46 billion. India, China and Japan are among those who have borrowed billions of dollars.
Recent election results also reflect people’s anger at established political parties – former presidents Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe and others – for failing to deal with the economic meltdown.
“One of Dissanayake’s priorities will be to give some economic relief to people because of excessive taxation and the cost of living crisis. Debt management is another big challenge,” veteran political analyst Professor Jayadeva Uyangoda told the BBC.
So far, the massive political changes seem to have had no impact on people like Niluka Dilrukshi, a mother of four who lives in the suburbs of the capital, Colombo. Her husband is a wage earner and the family is still struggling.
BBC spoke with her on the rising cost of living in January 2022, months before mass protests erupted.
Back then, she says, her family ate only two meals a day instead of three, and the children were given only vegetables and rice because of the expensive fish and meat.
“We are still struggling to make ends meet and nothing has changed. The price of rice, which is a staple food, has increased further. We are not getting any relief from the government,” says Ms Dilrukshi.
People like her want the new government to take immediate steps to reduce the cost of basic necessities. Sri Lanka is an import dependent country and needs foreign currency to bring in items like food and medicine.
For now, Colombo can keep its foreign exchange reserves because it has suspended debt payments.
The real fight, experts point out, will probably start in the next three to four years when he starts paying back the debt.
People’s perception of President Dissanayake and his new government could change if there is no visible change in their living standards in the next two or three years.
“The people gave him a huge mandate. The IMF should respect that by allowing him to give people some relief through social welfare programs,” says Prof. Uyangoda.
Dissanayake also has to contend with India and China, which are vying for influence in Sri Lanka, where both have invested heavily in recent years.
“Both India and China will try to put Colombo under their sphere of influence. I think the foreign policy of the new government will be very pragmatic without connecting with anyone,” says the professor. Uyangoda.
In a careful diplomatic maneuver, Dissanayake chose Delhi as his first official overseas destination in mid-December. During the visit, India promised the delivery of liquefied natural gas for power plants in Sri Lanka and the long-term connection of the energy networks of the two countries.
China’s growing foothold in Sri Lanka, particularly the entry of Chinese “research” ships into ports on the island – so close to India’s southern tip – has raised concerns in Delhi.
“I have given an assurance to the Indian Prime Minister that we will not allow our country to be used in any way in a way that is detrimental to India’s interests,” Dissanayake said after talks with Narendra Modi.
Delhi will no doubt be pleased with this assurance, but Dissanayake will find out what Beijing expects when he visits China in mid-January.
