Stocks sank last week as The lack of clarity about the tariff plans of President Donald Trump And what they could mean for the overall trajectory of the economy captured markets.
For a week, S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped more than 3%, while Dow Jones industrial average (^Dji) Slid more than 2%, or about 1,000 points. Nasdaq composite (^Ixix) led losses, fallen almost 3.5%. Nasdaq has now fallen more than 10% compared to the last record maximum in December and is a correction.
In the week of the upcoming key updates on inflation, with fresh readings of the manufacturer’s price (PPI) and consumer -priced index (CPI), they will focus as investors are looking for traces on how tariffs can affect the path to prices. Updates about inflation expectations and feelings of consumer are also in the calendar.
In the quieter week of editions of corporate earnings, Oracle (Orcl) and Adobe (Adbe) prominent schedule.
Nasdaq Gids – Delayed quote • • USD
Near: March 7 at 5:15:59 PM EST
A report on the job of February on Friday arrived and left with a few surprises. The American labor market has added 151,000 jobs in the month, just below expectation, while the unemployment rate increased up to 4.1%. Economists have greatly read a report as better than that, given Other signs of economic growth slow down.
American economist Bank of America Shruti Mishra described the report as “mostly a sigh of relief.” The markets are still priced in three decreasing interest rates from the Federal Reserve 2025, according to Bloomberg.
However, the upcoming issue for markets remains when federal reserves will reduce rates again. In a speech on Friday the President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell He said that any further reduction of the rate is probably not immediate.
“We don’t have to be in a hurry and we are well positioned to wait for more clarity,” Powell said.
There will be no Fed speech in the week ahead while the central bank enters its darkening period ahead of the next meeting from March 18 to 19.
Fresh update of price increase in price is scheduled to release on Wednesday.
Economists on Wall Street expect that in February CPIs will show the title annual inflation of 2.9%, which is less than 3% seen in January. Prices are expected to increase by 0.3% on the basis of the moon compared to monthly, by economic screenings, below a increase of 0.5% in January.
Based on the “core”, which allocates food and energy prices, it is expected that CPIs will increase by 3.2% compared to last year in February, below 3.3% seen in January. A monthly increase in clock prices of 0.3% is expected to increase a month, below 0.4% a month ago.
Wells Fargo, older economist Sarah House, wrote in a note to clients that the CPI print is expected to only provide the “initial taste” of the expected tariff influence on inflation information.
“Although we expect that both the title and the basic inflation in February will reduce the year compared to one year, we anticipate that it will start to move back this spring and remain stuck close to 3% of this year, despite further relieving shelter inflation and the growing signs of consumer fatigue,” House wrote.
AND Recent market sale They have encouraged to be weaker economic data than expected and fears from further softness caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Economists Morgan Stanley, JPMORGAN and GOLDMAN SACHS have reduced everything to GDP forecasts for the first or whole year. But what is noticeable in these calls is that they do not really predict a direct economic decline. Instead, at least for now, it seems more likely that the US economy will not grow a strong pace that many have hoped for. Not many economists are actually starting to talk about the recession. For example, with an update of Goldman Sachs prediction, the likelihood of recession over the next 12 months increased to 20% compared to 15% year before.
Companies are not afraid of recession right now. Factset data show that only 13 companies mentioned the word “recession” during the S&P 500 invitation in this quarter. This was marked by the smallest number of mention of recession since the first quarter of 2018.
This reflects that for now, the re -price of shares in the last few weeks is largely resetting expectations in A year that many believed would be exceeded by the effectiveness of the American economy.
“I don’t think the economy is turning in a negative direction,” said former president of economic advisers Jason Furman for Yahoo Finance. “But all on uncertainty, feelings, all of it pushes for slowing down.”
Economic data: New York Fed one -year inflation expectations, February (3% earlier)
Earnings: Asana (Asan), Oracle (Orcl), Vail resorts (Mtn)
Economic data: NFIB Optimism for small businesses, February (expected 101, 102.8 before)
Earnings: Casey’s (Kasila), Dick’s sports goods (DKS), Kohl’s (KSS)
Wednesday
Economic data: Consumer prices index, month during the month, February ( +0.3% expected, +0.5% earlier); Core CPI, month during the month, February ( +0.3% expected, +0.4% earlier); CPI, year after year, February ( +2.9% expected, +3% earlier); Core CPI, year after year, February ( +3.2% expected, +3.3% earlier); Real average earnings with clock, year after year, February (+0.9% earlier); Logs for Mortgage on MBA, a week ends on March 7 (+20.4% earlier)
Earnings: Adobe (Adbe), American eagle (Aeo), irobot (Irbt), Vera Bradley (Rum)
Economic data: Manufacturer’s price index, month during the month, February ( +0.3% expected, +0.4% earlier); PPI, year after year, February ( +3.3% expected, +3.5% earlier); Insecurity requirements for unemployment, a week ends on March 8 (221,000 earlier)
Earnings: Docusign (Document), A general dollar (DG), A section (Rbrk), Ultta beauty (Ultta)
Economic data: Consumer Mood of the University of Michigan (expected 63.9, 64.7 before)
Earnings: No noticeable earnings.
Josh Schafer is a journalist for Yahoo Finance. Follow it on x @@ Joshschafer.
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