Crossmark Global Investments CEO and CIO Bob Doll unpacked the state of the American economy on Wall Street Maria Bartiromo. “
The American economy added jobs to a slower pace than expected in January, as the federal reserves remain in the holding form to reduce interest rates as it evaluates the labor market and inflation information.
The Ministry of Labor on Friday reported that employers were Added 143,000 jobs In January, below the estimation of LSEG economists.
AND Unemployment rate He came in with 4%, lower than the expectations of economists.
The number of added jobs in the previous two months has been revised, and he revised new jobs in November for 49,000 with a profit of 212,000 to 261,000; While December was revised for 51,000 with a win from 256,000 to 307,000. Together, 100,000 more jobs were created in those two months than previously reported.
Inflation meter favored Fed showed prices in December
The job report in January came cooler than expected. (Allison Joyce / Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The salaries of the private sector added 111,000 jobs in January, below 141,000, which Economists of LSEG estimated.
Wage growth was stronger than expected, with an average earning of 0.5% compared to the previous month and 4.1% compared to the year. Both at the top of the LSEG economist estimate of 0.3% of the growth on a monthly basis and 3.8% compared to the year.
AND production sector In January, employment increased by modest 3000 jobs, which came to the expectation of economists that the sector would shed 2,000 jobs in a month.
AND Health industry In January, 43,700 jobs were added, guided by employment in hospitals (+13,900), care and residential care institutions (+13.200) and home health care services (+10.600). The sector was below average 2024 of 57,000 jobs per month.
Added retail 34,300 jobs last month with significant gains in the General Shop merchants (+31.200) and furniture and home furniture traders (+5.300), while electronics and devices recorded a fall (-7 000). Generally, the retail sector had a little net change in employment in 2024.
In January, the government added 32,000 jobs – a figure that was close to the average monthly gain of 38,000 in 2024.
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Social assistance has added 22,300 jobs, which led individual and family services (+20.100), and the gain also appears in food and accommodation in the community, housing care, emergency and other assistance services (+4.400). The sector increased on an average of 20,000 jobs a month last year.
Mining, quarry and oil and gas The extraction industry lost 7,700 jobs in January, and the losses are concentrated in mining support activities. The sector suffered a small net change in 2024.
The employment rate of the workforce is unchanged to 62.6% after calculating the annual adaptation of the population control, which was carried out by the Institute for Statistics (BLS).
The number of people who are considered to be unemployed in the long run, defined as a 27 -week or more job without a job, has changed a little to 1.4 million in January. The long -term unemployed consisted of 21.1% of all unemployed people.
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The number of workers employed by part -time economic reasons has changed a little to 4.5 million. These workers would prefer a full -time job, but they worked part -time because their hours were reduced or could not find a full -time job.
Multiple workers increased by 286,000 in January and represented 5.3% of the total workforce, which changed a little over the last year.
The Job Report in January comes after Federal reserves He decided against a fourth consecutive decrease in interest rates at his meeting last week due to uncertainty about inflation and health of labor market.
Federal reserves hold interest rates of stable in the midst of uncertainty of inflation
Fed Jerome Powell’s chair At his press conference after the meeting, he said that “a wide rally of indicators suggests that the working market conditions are widely in balance” and that, although the inflation remained a bit elevated, the labor market was not a source of significant influencers.
“The number of wages lower than expected January more than compensated for an increase in audits on November and December and the decline in the unemployment rate,” said Ellen Zentner, the main economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Those who hoped for a soft report that will return the Fed in a speed cutting mode did not get it.”
Jerome Powell’s federal reserve chair said last week that the labor market is not a source of significant inflationial pressures at the time. (Liu Jie / Xinhua via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Jeffrey Roach, the main economist for LPL Financial, said that a job report in January “can be considered a Goldilocks report – not too hot and not too cold.”
“Generally, the demand for workforce last year was softer than originally reported, but this trend temporarily reversed in November and December. The unemployment rate at 4% is considered very low, which Fed gave the reason the Fed funds They don’t change in the short term, “” Roach added.
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The next Fed meeting is scheduled for March 18 to 19, and the markets responded to a report on jobs in January, enhancing the expectations that the central bank would leave rates unchanged.
The likelihood of federal funding reference rates that remain in the current target range of 4.25% to 4.5% increased on Friday to 91.5%, compared to 84% before, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
