Somali analyst
Finding and fighting militants who have become the heart heart of the Islamic State (IS) in Africa can be difficult work while hiding deep in the northeast somalia mountains.
But in the typical style of Donald Trump, after the new US president ordered an air attack in the area last weekend, he posted on social networks: “We’ll find you and kill you!”
Trump said the hit, less than two weeks of his term, aimed at the older attack planner, and the other militants in the semi -Autonomous regions of Puntland Somalia and “destroyed the caves in which they live and killed many terrorists without any way, harm civilians.”
He boasted that he inherited where former US President Joe Biden failed.
“Biden and his friends wouldn’t seem fast enough to do the job. I did!”
The fact that Somalia was the target of the first American major military operation under the new administration surprised many in a country that was afraid of being planning to leave them.
In his first term, Trump withdrew about 700 American troops, a decision revealed by his successor.
A $ 600,000 contract (£ 492,000) Annual contract recently signed by the Somalian government with a top -notch Washington lobby company, BGR Group, is an indicator of how concerned.
Under the bidet, US troops in Somalia performed special operations, training elite somali force and conducting regular air attacks.
The day before the air strike, the Washington Post has published an interview with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, which has stated for the US “not to draw US advisers who support the training of our special forces.”
The post on the X from his office after the strike also had despair about this, acknowledging “the unwavering support of the United States in the fight against international terrorism” and welcoming “continuous commitment under the decisive guidance of President Donald Trump.”
But air attacks are different from the hull on the field and Trump did not stop air bombing in his first term. In fact, he increased them to almost 400.
“The strike does not mean that the US government will enhance their military engagement in Somalia,” says Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser to Sahan research based in Nairobi.
“Several US officials who were expected to assume that leading positions of African jobs no longer understand the federal government of Somalia with a credible partner and that they are deeply critical of the high levels of security assistance in recent years to very little significant effect.”
Puntland’s anti-terrorist approach is different from the one at the National Somali Government, with whom she interrupted ties in March last year.
It is more independent and not so much depends on the support of the African Union hull – about 12,000 of which are on the ground – and global forces, including the US.
Like Mohamed Mubarak, head of the Puntland Security Coordination Office, he points out that the carcasses from the northeast struggle for years with a little help or thanks to others.
“It is not fair to put the airline and the center as we fight and die on the ground,” says Mr. Mubarak.
“No matter what the rest of the world does, we fight, what is an international problem,” he says.
“We haven’t seen much support except Kenya, Ethiopia and UAE. We don’t know if Americans will spend more than one air attack.”
Puntland says her forces captured 48 caves and stood – and destroyed dozens of drones and explosive devices – since they launched their full “Hilaac” or “Lightning” last year.
Although it was active in Somalia for about a decade, it was a less threat than the Islamist group of Al-Shabab, which controls large parts of the country and is described as the most successful Al-Qaeda branch.
However, in recent times it has become more significant – local, regional and international.
Puntland and unnamed American officials say that Somalia’s leader, orange-brand, fascinated by Abdulqadir Mumin, is now a global ISF.
Initial reports suggested that he was killed in an American air attack last May, but never confirmed.
Regardless of whether the mumin is a boss or is alive or dead, Is-Somalia is becoming increasingly worrying for foreign countries.
As Trump said, “These killers, who we discovered that they were hiding in caves, threatened the United States and our allies.”
According to Tricia Bacon, director of the political anti-terrorist center at the US University of Washington, “Is-Somalia has taken over more responsibilities within the Islamic State Network, especially in Africa, but also outside the continent.”
Since the branches operate on the entire continent, from Mozambique to Mali, from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Nigeria, Is-Somalia serves as a crucial nervous center.
Mrs. Bacon warns that Is-Somalia also looks out of Africa.
“It is positioned to make it easier and contribute to attacks in the West, including the United States. It also tries to inspire attacks in the West,” she says.
“International partners should provide more support from Puntland’s constant efforts against the group.”
Mr. Bryden says that an agreement with Iranian rebels is Houthho across the Red Sea in Yemen also a problem.
“Like Al-Shabab, Is-Somalia received weapons and training from Houthis in Yemen, which is a worrying US government and his allies,” he says.
An increasing number of foreign fighters join the group, improveing their strength in terms of numbers and expertise.
It is believed that the main source of the recruit of is-Somalia are Ethiopian migrants, which gather in the port city of Bosaso in Puntland in the hope that the sea will go to a better life abroad.
Whether their offer is a better salary than they would earn in the bay states, and experts say that some older commanders of the Ethiopian group are.
“We estimate that Is-Somalia is 80% or more foreign fighters, mostly from North Africa, Ethiopia, Tanzania and the Middle East, in that order,” says Mr. Mubarak.
Estimates that the group is about 1,000 strong; The UN monitors put it at about 600 to 700.
Last October, the head of the command of American Africa, Michael Langley, said he thought he had grown in northern Somalia about about a “twice” in a year.
In December, the group performed one of its most sophisticated ever, hitting a military base in the Puntland’s Bari region.
The group published a statement that was not included by any Somali. 12 attackers came from seven countries – Tanzania, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Ethiopia.
The movement also became more effective in raising money.
The US experts, the UN -Ai Somalia say that the key part of the financial infrastructure is -the Al -karrar office -with its headquarters in Puntland, payment of funds and expertise in other branches of the group in Africa and beyond.
The United States Control Office (OFAC) said that Is-Somalia raised almost $ 2 million in the first half of 2022 by taxation of local companies, imports, nomads and farmers.
If Puntland’s strength will be able to get out of militants, the air support will prove invaluable.
Shortly after the US strike, Puntland police said the leader Abdirahman Shirwa Aw-Said, head of Abdirahman Shirwa AW-Said.
But experts say such strikes will have to be consistent to hunt existing cells in Somalia and stop other mushrooms.
It is unclear whether now his unpredictable leader has an appetite to continue bombarding the Somalian northeast mountains.
Mary Harper wrote two books about Somalia, including everything you told me, is the truth, a view of life under al-Shabab.
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