The first week of Donald Trump’s Presidency, Tariff – a favorite point of conversation during last year’s presidential campaign – were dogs that were not barking.
The store seems to have taken the rear place, while the new administration has focused on the implementation of immigration, the pardon of Capitol Riot condemnation, the energy policy of fossil fuel and the reversal of federal labor – among other devastating new new measures.
All this changed last weekend when Trump announced that he had withdrew 25% of tariffs to the US allies Canada and Mexico, along with 10% duties in Chinese imports.
And doc Since then delayed the imposition of these tariffs At his North American neighbors a month after both countries agreed new borders, the president continues to face the moment of calculating in which he will eventually have to decide whether to reconcile his rhetoric with the action.
Trump often talks about a trade deficit between the USA of her two neighbors as a key source of his dissatisfaction. If this is the case, then no new border security or drug attacks – regardless of metrics or certain requirements – will make the president completely abandon his tariff threat.
Trump also said that the tariffs considered not only as a tool for achieving the goals of politics, but as a permanent source of income from now -Ai -a means of financing government programs and a reduction in budget deficit. And if this is his ultimate goal, then the tariffs are on the largest American trade partners can be the only effective answer.
Global financial markets on Monday appeared in this look, as the US appeared on the verge of running a trade war with multiple fronts with some of his closest economic partners.
Then, after talking to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump put Tariffs on a break. While new duties on China came into force – and encouraged retribution from Beijing – The markets considered these American moves less devastating and smaller circumference.
On the contrary, if the US involved in the escalating series of tariffs with Canada and Mexico, which amounted to more than 1.57tn (1,24tn) of the goods 2023, the global economic effect could be catastrophic.
This terrible development may have been prevented so far, and Trump and his administration have declared at least a partial victory.
The details of what Canada and Mexico have recognized, however, paint a more complex image.
While Canada agreed to form a common power against crime with the US and name “Fentanil Tsar”, concrete steps he described in detail were part of a package of border security that Canada had published earlier.
Mexico advocated the implementation of drugs and 10,000 soldiers to patrol US -mexico border – but these numbers reflect the deployment that the nation made in 2019 and again in 2021.
In a month, Trump will have to decide again whether Canada and Mexico will do enough to meet their requirements – or whether the delayed tariffs will take effect.
However, solid figures showing progress may be difficult to come.
According to their own administration measures, US immigration officials seized only 43 pounds (19.5 kg) of fentanila and caught 193,540 people crossing the border of American and Canada 2024. The numbers are much larger for the border of the American-mexican, but unproven transitions and the medicine are resistant down there.
Global financial markets have significantly calmed down from a disorder of inspired by a tariff on Monday morning. Investors seemed to have concluded that Trump was more glittering than the action in the Trump store.
The president may be able to draw more concessions than Canadian and Mexican leaders in a month, but at some point they will conclude that Trump has no will to follow his threats.
Despite the claim of success, his gathering in the store could ultimately produce a reduction in yields.
At that moment, the president would make a decision. Does he disposes of his state -of -the -art tariff plans for good? Are his dreams on the return of the USA trade policy of the end of the 19th century – which he said was the golden age of American economic power – unrealistic?
Or presses his vision of a new, more American global trade order despite the risk of at least short -term economic pain?
That moment of calculation was delayed. But it comes.
Follow the reverse of Trump’s second presidential term with correspondent of correspondent Anthony Zurcher Politics have printed us bulletin. Readers in the UK can Log in here. Those outside the UK can Log in here.
