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The global demand for oil will not fall at least 2040, according to the new forecast of the largest independent energy trader in the world, in the last signal that economy will fight to break their oil addiction.
Vitol, who trades about 7 percent of the world’s oil supply daily, expects global demand at the end of this decade to reach almost 110 million barrels a day and then withdraw to current levels of about 105 mn B/du 2040.
“The demand of 2040 is expected to be compared to today,” the long -term demand said in their appearances seen by the Financial Times and should have been released on Sunday. This is the first time a private trading company has announced its internal calculations about energy demand.
The prognosis allocates Vitol from the International Energy Agency, which expects the demand for oil to be 105.6 million B/d 2029. The prediction is also different from those made by BP.
Wide Reading British Major Energy prospects In July, he said that the demand for oil would be at the end of this decade and then drop to about 91.4 million B/d 2040. And that was 6 percent more than the last forecast, indicating that BP also expects a slower energy transition than he had previously thought.
The expansion between different predictions reflects the challenges of predicting long -term oil demand, especially while the pace of acceptance of new technologies such as electric vehicles and sustainable aviation fuel remains uncertain.
Vitoli Bullish prospects come just a few weeks after Donald Trump’s election, and the US president has committed to increasing the production of fossil fuels. The company said that the growing population, economic growth and urbanization would support the demand of oil, despite the efforts to reduce the carbon emission switching to the cleaner of fuel.
The consumption of some petroleum products, such as gasoline, is expected to fall, Vitol said. It predicts that global gas demand for gasoline will fall for 4.5 million B/d to 2040, and consumption has already fallen in China due to a massive presentation of electric cars.
However, such falls will be compensated for by increased demand for petrochemical plastic and for liquefied oil gas (LPG) as a fuel of heating and cooking in developing economy, according to Vitol’s analysis.
Petrochemical oil demand is likely to increase by 6 mn b/d to 2040 to represent the fifth of all oil consumed, it is said. Meanwhile, UNP consumption is expected to increase by 1.7 million B/D for a period, as more people in developing economy exceeds more firm fuels, such as wooden coal, in bottled gas.
Among the merchants of the goods, Vitol was one of the craziest relations with the long -term power of oil demand, procuring the largest individual refinery in the Mediterranean last year.
So far, this strategy has been successful and has made Vitol one of the most profitable companies in the world based on employees. Has made a net profit from $ 15 billion in 2022 and $ 13 billion in 2023 As geopolitical disorders, they developed oil markets.
Vitol is owned by approximately 450 elderly partners and employs about 1,700 people, mostly widespread in trading centers in London, Geneva, Singapore and Houston.
