The tariffs now remain like a blade for the executor over the economy of our country. And US President Donald Trump says he dropped the ax on Saturday.
If the details of his plan actually coincide with the rhetoric, it would change not only the economy, but also the Canada-US relationship because it developed in several generations.
The president insists that he is progressing with 25 -long charges on Canada and Mexico, including a oil tariff, though softer rates.
He decided and doesn’t want to negotiate, he says.
“We’re not looking for a concession,” Trump told reporters at an oval office on Friday. “We’ll see what’s going on.”
Designed GDP drop, balloon deficit, debt
Again, we have not seen a fine print, but if it is in line with his words, this would free the scenario of a nightmare that lurks over the Canadian economy.
Former parliamentary budget official Kevin Page projects contraction in the 2009 recession neighborhood, somewhere between the fall of GDP from 2 to 2.5 percent, along with the national deficit and Duga balloons.
But there is an even greater story that has written again. This includes the place of Canada in the world after 90 years of increased binding for the US, if Trump moves forward, it would interrupt much more than a few decades of the Canada-US free trade; It would end an era that extends longer.
Canada and the United States have constantly built closer economic connections with each other since 1935, because they have taken out of continuous depression.
Which generations have been built
November 18, 1935. New York Times reported After a full year of negotiations, the countries would remove hundreds of tariffs, and consumers would see cheaper radio, cars, clothing, fruits and vegetables.
Integration continued, no matter what occasional disputes – with an automatic pound in 1965then the free trade agreement in 1987and more trade agreements in 1994 and 2018 with Mexico.
Canada has just threw his much with the US in a global emergence order, with Multiple recent moves that toxic his relationship With China, but it seemed to ensure a place within the American tent.
The new turbulent trade barrier would mean that there was no orbit. No tent. And the world Canadians know that they would be unrecognizably corrupted.
The geopolitical order is a long -term question. In the short term there are salaries for earnings, mouths for feeding and mortgage and renting to pay.
Of all the pockets of the economy in the risk of pain, it is a little faced with the greater danger of the export of Canada no. 2 in the US – Auto Sector.
The auto industry warns to stop the production lines
Repeat: We didn’t see a fine print.
But the 25 -pointed tariff would mean a quick stop, equal with the early days of pandemic and border blockades of trucks in 2022, said one representative in the industry.
“It would end up off the industry across North America within a week,” said Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian lobby of the Auto-Dia.
President Donald Trump warns that he wants to build a ‘tariff wall’ for the United States and says that the 25 -pointed tariff in Canada is coming on Saturday. Flavio Volpe, President of the Association of Automobile Part Manufacturers and a member of the Prime Minister’s Council for Relations with Kanada-US, warns: “No one in the US will make cars.”
If you are looking for a silver lining, there is not much to continue.
Stint hard enough, and you may see the subtle signs outside the ramp in what Trump said on Friday. It was barely observed, but when Trump asked him if he was still ready for negotiations, he used the words: “Not right now” and “we’ll see what’s going on.”
Trump also sent Trump a subtle message on Friday afternoon. Dow Jones dipped three quarters percent, a modest but sudden fall.
If there is a protective space here, something that could distract Trump, it is a real economy. Fear that a self-tan wound could hurt his public state. Because the Congress will not stop him and the courts probably cannot, According to trade experts.
Then again, Trump insists that he is ready for some pain. He told reporters on Friday that he expects short -term disorders because he is diverting economics.
And if it bluffs?
Even if Trump makes Backpedal after a few days, a temporary tariff could hurt. Companies will hear a message from Washington Loud and Clear: Invest outside America to your danger.
It is actually Trump’s longtime trade policy on steroids. He adds unpredictability to the cross -border trade for years.
His allies are Clearly about this: If the companies are worried, they can simply move production to the US, it is Trump’s goal. Unforeseen is a feature, not a beetle.
Because of this, the new North American trade pact is incorporated into it. Trump’s team insisted on one decade negotiationand welcomed less legal protection for investors.
So in recent weeks of Canada has announced a series of policies to resolve drug gang and cross -border migration. Several members of Trump’s team celebrated itgreeting progress.
But it was there on Friday. In the oval office, promising to stick to something he loves, maybe when it comes to public politics, his greatest love: tariffs.
“It’s one of the most beautiful words in the dictionary,” he told reporters, on the eve of an executive action that could re -configure the economic map of North America.
