The copper market has a half chance of US tariffs of 10% by the end of the first quarter, Goldman Reuters says
(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Monday that the market is pricing in around 50% that 10% tariffs on the metal will be imposed in the US by the end of the first quarter of this year.
Analysts at the US investment bank said in a note to clients that the estimate is similar to their subjective 50% probability of a 10% effective copper tariff by the end of the year.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.3% at $9,167 a tonne at 0706 GMT after hitting a one-month high last week. [MET/L]
President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House later in the global day with an inaugural speech that traders will analyze for policies to be enacted on the first day. Trump has talked about tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports, as well as 60% on Chinese goods and an additional 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports.
Goldman also noted that the oil market has an almost 40% chance of US tariffs of 25% on Canadian goods, including oil, versus the bank’s subjective 15% probability of an effective 25% tariff by the end of the year.
futures were trading around $80.69 a barrel, while the more active April contract for April US West Texas crude was steady at $77.36. [O/R]
The investment bank assigned a 10% chance that an effective gold duty of 10% would be introduced in the next 12 months. He said bullion’s status as a financial asset made it likely that it would be exempt from broad tariffs.
prices rose 0.3% to $2,708.77 an ounce, while U.S. prices were little changed at $2,749.70. [GOL/]
The amount of gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses jumped by one-third in the past six weeks as market players sought supplies to hedge against the possibility of tariffs.
