An aerial view of a container ship leaving a port in Qingdao, east China’s Shandong province.
Publishing of the future | Publishing of the future | Getty Images
Chinese exports and imports significantly beat expectations in December, data from the country’s customs authorities showed on Monday, with exporters continuing to make shipments ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs.
China’s exports jumped 10.7% in December from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 7.3% rise in a Reuters poll. That compares with a 6.7% rise in November and a 12.7% jump in October.
Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, reversing declines in the previous two months.
Analysts predicted a drop in imports of 1.5% on an annual basis. It is compared to a larger decline than the 3.9% in November and 2.3 percent in October.
Last year, China’s total yuan-denominated exports jumped 7.1% year-on-year, accelerating from modest growth of 0.6% in 2023customs officials said at a press conference on Monday.
Last year, Chinese imports grew by 2.3%, rising from a decrease of 0.3% in 2023.
A prolonged real estate crisis hit domestic demand, causing the country to rely more on exports as a driver of growth.
Economists expect trade to have significantly supported China’s economic growth last year. GDP data is due later this week.
Exports have been a rare bright spot in China’s battered economy amid heightened trade tensions with its main trading partners — the United States, the European Union — but that growth could be at risk once Trump returns to the White House.
Export of electric vehicles and semiconductors increased by 13.1% and 18.7% respectively last yearcustoms officials say.
Imminent risks
Trump – who is set to be inaugurated on January 20 – has fueled fears of higher tariffs on Chinese exports. He has promised an additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US
Chinese authorities have stepped up policy support since late September to prop up the country’s economy as growth falters and social tensions rise. But “a balance of caution and restraint remains,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Tene, said in a note last Friday.
China has reduce interest rateslaid back restrictions on the purchase of real estateinjected liquidity into the financial market as well revealing debt swap program in order to alleviate the fiscal pressure of local authorities.
“While top leaders recognize the need to boost real GDP growth, Xi still appears reluctant to accept the additional degree of stimulus needed to fight deflation,” Wildau added.
“Policymakers need to keep some stimulus powder dry to allow for a sufficient response if the impact of tariffs is severe,” he said, suggesting that uncertainty over export growth creates an additional reason for Beijing to avoid a “big bang.” [stimulus] access.”
Among a raft of key economic data available this week, China is scheduled to release full-year GDP data as well as fourth-quarter GDP data on Friday. According to a Reuters poll, growth is pegged at 5.1% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024.
For this year, the top leadership promised reinforcements domestic consumption the main priority at the same time increasing fiscal spending to finance the policy of replacing consumer goods and upgrading equipment. Launched in July last yearthe exchange program subsidizes consumers on trade in old cars or household appliances and buy new ones at a discount.
This is breaking news. Please check back later for updates.
