Authors Daren Butler, Ece Toksabay and Umit Ozdal
ISTANBUL/ANKARA (Reuters) – Talks aimed at ending a 40-year militant conflict have raised hopes for peace in Turkey, but the precarious situation of Kurdish forces in Syria and uncertainty about Ankara’s intentions have left many Kurds worried about the road ahead.
Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant group, has been quoted as saying he is willing to call on the PKK to lay down its arms in a peace process to end the insurgency it launched against NATO member Turkey in 1984.
The conflict has killed more than 40,000 people, stalled the development of the mostly Kurdish southeast and caused deep political divisions.
Turkey’s pro-Kurdish DEM party met with Ocalan in late December and has since held talks with other parties, including President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party (AKP), to discuss Ocalan’s proposal, with both sides describing the talks as “positive”.
Two DEM sources told Reuters the party is now ready to visit Ocalan again on January 15 at his prison on the northwestern Turkish island of Imrali, where the 75-year-old has been imprisoned since 1999. They expect the meeting to yield a concrete agreement. a plan for peace negotiations.
“We expect the process to take shape and a clear road map to establish a legal framework at the second meeting with Ocalan,” DEM party parliamentary group deputy chairman Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit told Reuters. DEM is the third largest party in the parliament.
It was not clear what Ocalan would seek in any deal, but DEM quoted him as talking about efforts for “democratic transformation” in Turkey. The Kurds have long demanded more political and cultural rights and economic support. DEM also demands the release of Ocalan.
The dynamics of any peace process have been transformed by the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, leaving Syrian Kurdish forces behind with and against Turkish-backed forces and new rulers in Damascus who are friendly with Ankara.
Turkey has warned it could launch a cross-border military offensive in northern Syria against the Kurdish YPG militia if it is not disbanded. He says that they are terrorists and part of the PKK, but they are also allies of the United States in the fight against the Islamic State, which further complicates the problem.
It is not yet clear how Assad’s fall might affect the prospects for the PKK to lay down its arms. A senior PKK figure indicated in an interview this week that the group supports Ocalan’s efforts, but did not comment on the issue of disarmament.
The leader of Syrian Kurdish forces has proposed that foreign fighters, including the PKK, leave Syria as part of a deal with Turkey to avoid further conflict in the country.
“POINT THE GUNS AND TALK ABOUT PEACE”
Kocyigit said that managing the peace process in Turkey against this background is the biggest test for Ankara.
“You cannot point a gun at the Kurds in (Syria’s) Kobani and talk about peace in Turkey,” she said. “The Kurdish issue is a complex issue. It needs to be dealt with not only in the internal dynamics of Turkey, but also in its international dimensions.”
Turkey should accept that the Kurds have a say in the future of Syria, she added.
Ankara has said little about the talks with Ocalan, launched after a proposal by Erdogan’s main ally in October, but one senior AKP figure spoke optimistically after a meeting with a DEM delegation.
“We see everyone’s good-faith efforts to contribute to the process,” AKP’s Abdullah Guler said on Tuesday, adding that the goal was to resolve the issue this year. “The process before us will lead to a completely different development that we did not expect.”
He did not specify what this development was, but another AKP lawmaker said that an atmosphere could be created for the PKK to lay down its arms by February. Asked if there could be an amnesty for PKK members, Guler said that a general amnesty is not on the agenda.
The leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, Ozgur Ozel, said an all-party parliamentary commission should be established to address the problems facing the Kurds.
In the southeast, Kurds are skeptical about the prospects for peace after past setbacks. This uncertainty is reflected in public opinion surveys. A recent SAMER poll of around 1,400 people, conducted in the southeast and major Turkish cities, found that only 27% of respondents expected the initial call for Ocalan to end the conflict to turn into a peace process.
The last peace talks collapsed in 2015, sparking a wave of violence and a crackdown on pro-Kurdish party members. Guler said that the current process will in no way resemble those talks of ten years ago, saying that the situation has changed.
ERDOGAN’S POSITION IS KEY
Key to boosting confidence in the peace process would be an expression of support from Erdogan, according to DEM’s Kocyigit.
“His direct confirmation that he is involved in the process would make a big difference. If he openly expressed that support, social support would increase quickly,” she said.
Erdogan has so far maintained his hardline rhetoric against the PKK, saying after a cabinet meeting this week that “those who choose violence will be buried with their weapons” and repeating his oft-used warning about military action against Syrian Kurdish forces: “We may come suddenly one night”.
Erdogan said he believed “in the end, brotherhood, unity, togetherness and peace will win,” warning that if that path was blocked, “we will not hesitate to use the iron fist of our state wrapped in a velvet glove.”
The importance of Erdogan’s comments was also emphasized by Yuksel Genc, coordinator of the SAMER survey from Diyarbakir.
“The harsh rhetoric of Erdogan and his circle is preventing a revival of confidence in the new process (among the Kurds) on the street,” she said, noting the concerns of many Kurds about what will happen to the Kurds in Syria.
Domestically, Ankara has signaled a willingness to address the Kurdish issue, unveiling a $14 billion development plan last month aimed at closing the economic gap between the southeast and the rest of Turkey.
An end to the conflict would be widely welcomed across Turkey, but the government faces a balancing act given the widespread hostility among most Turks to Ocalan and the PKK after four decades of bloodshed, with many opposing peace talks.
“I definitely do not support it. I am not in favor of such bargaining and discussions. I consider this disrespect to our martyrs [soldiers] and their families,” said Mehmet Naci Armagan, who works in the tourism sector, in Istanbul.
