Did they go to the recession under Trump now?

During his election campaign last year, Donald Trump promised Americans to introduce a new age of prosperity.

Now two months in its presidency, a picture of a slightly different picture.

He warned that it would be difficult to lower the prices and the public should be prepared for a “little annoyance” before he could restore wealth to the US.

In the meantime, analysts say the chances of falling are increasing, pointing to his policies.

So, will Trump start a recession in the world’s largest economy?

In the United States, recession is defined as an extended and widespread decline in economic activity, which is usually characterized by the jump of unemployment and decrease in revenue.

The choir of economic analysts has warned in recent days that the risks of such a scenario are increasing.

The JP Morgana report put a chance for a 40% recession, compared to 30% at the beginning of the year, warning that US policy “tilted growth”, while Mark Zandi, the main economist from Moody’s Analytics, increased its odds from 15% to 35%, quoting tariffs.

The forecasts came as a S&P 500, which follows the 500 largest companies in the United States -it sank abruptly. He has now fallen to the lowest level since September in fear of the future.

The market is partly triggered by concern about new import taxes called Tariff, which Trump has introduced since he has taken over his duty.

He hit the products of the three largest American trade partners with new duties and threatened them wider in moves that analysts believe will increase prices and suppress growth.

Trump and his economic advisers warned the public to be prepared for some economic pain, and they seem to be released The market concerns – a significant change since its first term, when he often cited the stock market as a measure of his own success.

“There will always be a change and adjustments,” he said last week, in response to companies’ requests for greater security.

The posture increased the caring of investors because of his plans.

Goldman Sachs increased her recession in 15% to 20% last week, saying that she considered a policy change “key risk” for the economy. But it noted that the White House still had “the possibility of pulling back if the risk of deficiency began to look more serious.”

“If the White House has remained dedicated to its policies even in relation to much worse data, the risk of recession would increase further,” the company’s analysts warned.

For many companies, the largest questionnaire is tariffs, which increase the costs for US companies by placing imports. While Trump discovers tariff plans, many companies are now facing small profit margins, while lingering on investment and employment as they try to figure out what the future will look like.

Investors are also concerned about the great decreasing of government labor and state consumption.

Brian Gardner, head of the Washington Policy Strategy at Stiifel Investment Bank, said that companies and investors thought Trump Tarife intended as a negotiating tool.

“But what the president and his cabinet signal is actually a bigger job. It’s restructuring an American economy,” he said. “And this is what triggers markets in the last few weeks.”

The American economy has already been slowing down, and partly designed the central bank, which kept interest rates greater to try to cool the activity and stabilize prices.

In recent weeks, some data suggest faster weakening.

Retail sale in February, confidence – which after Trump’s elections on several consumer surveys – fell, and companies involving large airlines, traders like Walmart and Target, and manufacturers warn the return.

Some analysts take care that the fall in the market market could initiate further suppression of consumption, especially among households with higher revenues.

This could bring a big shot to the American economy, which is triggered by consumer consumption and more and more depends on those richer households, because families with lower income face the pressure of inflation.

The head of the US Central Bank, Jerome Powell, offered guarantees in speech last week, noting that feelings in recent years have not been a good behavioral indicator.

“Despite the elevated level of uncertainty, the American economy is still in a good place,” he said.

But the American economy is currently deeply connected to the rest of the world, warned Kathleen Brooks, a research director at XTB.

“The fact that the tariffs could disrupt that there were signs at the same time that the American economy was weakening anyway .. it really stimulates the fears of recession,” she says.

The discomfort on the stock market is not all about Trump.

Investors have already been nervous because of the possibility of correction, after major gains in the last two years, guided by sharp launch in technological stocks that promotes the optimism of investors on artificial intelligence (AI),

For example, Chipmaker Nvidia recorded a leap of shares with less than $ 15 at the beginning of $ 2023. To almost $ 150 in November last year.

This type of ascent aroused the discussion of the “AI bubble” – with investors on a high warning for IT signs, which would have a great impact on the stock market, regardless of the dynamics of the wider economy.

Now, overlooking the American economy, optimism over AI is even harder to maintain.

Technology analyst Gene Munster from Deepwater Asset Management wrote this week on social media that his optimism “took a step back” because she has increased the “measurable” chance for a recession in the last month.

“The essence is that if we get into a recession, it will be extremely difficult to trade AI continues,” he said.