(Bloomberg) – While investors are watching Tariff Donald Trump “Liberation Day” on April 2, the option of the option of the option that it is far from the only event in the calendar.
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The Volatility for the Options of the S&P 500 index options is implied for several days in the next two weeks, which then signals more demand for protection against large swing markets. That the bump in the Volatility curve is higher for March 31 – immediately after the basic price of the PCE price is a favored measure of inflation of the Federal Reserve, published – and for April 4, when monthly unemployment data in the United States.
This emphasizes that investors pay at least as much attention to economic data that can signal that the labor market and prices respond to the effects of Trump’s deep decrease in the Bellicose Government salaries and trade policies, such as his excuses. With recent tariff statements that deal with markets in markets, it seems more and more for traders to wait to see what is real.
“Through the SPX lens, markets seem to diminish the impact on US shares of American implementation of agricultural and reciprocal tariffs,” said Anshul Gupta and Stefano Pascale, strategists for performing capital at Barclays Bank PlC.
Although there are signs that retail investors have reduced their participation, Barclays’ indicator Euphoria in the capital suggests that they can be further excluded from the stock market, Gupta and Pascali said.
One feature of a decrease of 10% in the S&P 500 was that even though it was fast, there was a relative calm on the market. The volatility index of the CBOE was not as reactive as in previous sales in early August and December. And Vvix, which measures the expected swings in Vix, sank last week until the lowest from the beginning of December, signaling demand for nerve protection against wider market consequences.
The lack of volatility jumps is partly due to the fact that some investors illuminated their positions and rotated to other parts of the world, reducing the need to buy insurance compared to the risk of further fall.
Max Grincoff, head of research by US capital derivatives in UBS Securities, said he expects Vix to remain in his current range in the short term. Investors who are long American shares “have not” flooded, as they did on August 5, “he said.
