Prior to the Los Angeles disaster, the wilderness threw others out of California

Christina Welch still remembers what the sky looked like the day when the fire came within 2 miles (3.2 km) from his Santa Rosa, California, a house.

It was a 2017 Tubbs fire, at that time the most devastating in California history. Mrs. Welch’s neighbor woke her up in the morning and told her to grab her things and go out. When Mrs. Welch opened the door, the ashes fell from the sky and the smoke filled the air.

Then in 2019, Kincade Wildfire forced her parents to evacuate five days.

It was the last pressure for Mrs. Welch. After a friend’s advice, she packed her things and drove all over the country to her new hometown: Duluth, Minnesota.

“That was just the highlight of everything,” said the 42-year-old. “There is only so many times that I have been going through every fall care of what will be set on fire if I will lose the house.”

Mrs. Welch is one of several people who have left California in recent years because of climate disaster, even before the most magical fire in Los Angeles has killed 25 people this month.

Only this week, in the Los Angeles County, northwest of the city, a new, fast fire fire broke out, forcing tens of thousands of people to evacuate the region that has already taken place from destruction. Trump said last week that he would visit South California soon to witness desolate with Blazes.

Climate experts say they have not seen mass migration from the state so far because of the climate change – and it is difficult to evaluate the number of people who have left for this reason. The growth rate of the State Population, however, continues to fall since 2000, according to the US Census.

But scientists and demographic experts say that climate change disaster would become more extreme and unpredictable, the number of people leaving the state could increase, leaving some unprepared cities with the task of greeting new residents.

“There could be this wave of new people who say,” You know what? California just won’t work for me, because this is the third time in five years that I had to close my doors because of extreme soot and smoke, “said Professor of Sciences of the University of Michigan Derek Van Berkel.

“We have to start preparing for these possible, because it will become more common and more extreme.”

Numerous climate -related factors can encourage California to leave the home in the next decade. From 2020 to 2023. The wildlife destroyed more than 15,000 buildings in California, Calfire states. At least 12,000 structures were lost in fires in Los Angeles, which broke out earlier this year.

The state faces other influences of climate change, including floods. The growth of the sea level could be placed half a million inhabitants of California in areas prone to floods by 2100, according to the State Attorney’s Office.

The state also deals with at least two earthquakes on average each year of 5.5 or more, according to the California Conservation Department.

As climate disasters have become more extreme and more often, home insurance rates in the country have also continued to grow. More than 100,000 inhabitants of California lost home insurance since 2019, according to San Francisco Chronicle analysis.

Data suggest that climate migration is more local phenomenon so far, with some moving inside their home country or even looking for a higher country in their city to avoid floods, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implication with first street, which It conducts climate risk modeling.

But, in recent years, fewer people have started going to cities outside California, which are advertised as a potential “climate refuge”.

The term comes from the researcher of the climate adaptation of Jesse Keenan, who in 2019 created a list of places that are expected to be less under the influence of climate change.

Near the top of the list is Duluth, Minnesota, a former industrial city, a home of about 90,000 people, a population that slowly grew since 2020 after years of stagnation.

One of the drawing of the city is its proximity to large lakes, a series of lakes that consists of the largest freshwater body in the world. About 10% now -a 30% of Canada relies on lakes for drinking water.

“In a scenario where resources have become scarce, this is huge assets,” Mr. Van Berkel said.

Water supply Great Lakes lured Jamie Beck Alexander and her family in Duluth. Annoyed by three consecutive, destructive fires of the California fire, Mrs. Alexander, her husband and two young children, piling up in the camp van and drove the entire country in Minnesot in 2020.

Mrs. Alexander found similarities between a small, progressive city and their old town of San Francisco.

“There is a real depth of the connection between people and deep rooting, things that I think are important for climate resistance,” she said.

Mrs. Welch ignored her friends who thought it was crazy to move to the city known for his record snowfall and icy conditions, with an average 106 days of the year of temperature of the submers. The crunchy, beautiful city on the hill became its own, she said.

“There are a lot of people here who love where they live and want to protect it,” Mrs. Welch said about Duluth.

Although some cities have accepted their appointment as a climate refuge, smaller local self -governments remain a challenge to find resources to plan new residents and climate resistance, said Mr. Van Berkel.

Mr. Van Berkel cooperates with Duluth and other cities in the area of ​​Veliki Lake on climate change planning, including the greeting of new residents moving because of climate change.

The city of Duluth refused to respond to the request of the BBC for a comment on how to prepare for potentially greeting climate migrants.

For now, said Mr. Porter, the region of large lakes and other cities of “climate refuge” do not see a high level of migration. But if that changed, many would not be ready, he said.

“It would be necessary for a large investment in local communities … In order for these communities to take over the type of population that some of the literature on climate migration indicates,” said Mr. Porter.

For example, in the city of Duluth, the availability of apartments can be a problem, said Mrs. Alexander. She said that although the city has room to create new apartments, there are currently not enough new events for the growing population. As a result, in the years since she moved there, she said, apartments have increased.

And every new housing and other movements should also be made with respect to climate change, said Mr. Van Berkel.

“We don’t want to make the wrong steps that could be very expensive with our infrastructure when we have climate change by growing his ugly head,” he said.

In 2024, the Hurricane Category 4 destroyed over 2,000 homes and companies in Kelsey Lahr Climate Refuge from Asheville, North Carolina.

She moved there in 2020, attracted to the city’s warm climate, restaurant and music scene, after a series of devastating seasons and sliding fires near her city of Santa Barbara in California.

Before moving, Ms. Lahr explored the most popular places to live, and Asheville was ranked near the top due to gentle temperatures and locations in the interior, protecting it from flood.

But last year, Hurricane Helene walked through the western North Carolina, killing over 100 people in the country and decimating the new hometown of Asheville Mrs. Lahr. Many have lost electricity for almost 20 days and without drinking drinking water for more than a month.

“It is clear that the South Appalachia is a” climate refuge “for which it was built,” said Mrs. Lahr.

In Deluth, Mrs. Alexander said her family also quickly learned that they could not escape climate change.

During their first summer, the city was hit by the same smoke and poor air quality that pushed them out of California – this time from Canadian fires.

“It was, this really deep joke that the universe played on me,” she said. “Unless we deal with the cause [of climate change]We will always feel like we need to pick ourselves up and move. “

Since then, she has moved to Wisconsin for personal reasons, but says she doesn’t regret the first time in Minnesota. Neither does Ms Lahr regret moving to Asheville.

Although Mrs. Lahr often misses the ancient forests of the Yosemite National Park in California, where she would spend her summers working as a X -ray in the park, a future that can bring more climate disaster requires victims, she said.

“Somehow I think the climate refuge are myth,” she said. “Everyone has to evaluate the risk of where they live and go from there.”