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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
“The first term, everyone was against me,” Donald Trump said before Christmas. “In this term, everyone wants to be my friend.” He has a right. Eight years ago, Trump faced an angry protest movement, which flooded Washington and resisted his short-lived “Muslim ban” in the days after his inauguration. This time it is barely audible. The mood of the opposition changed from indignant to depressed.
The Democrats are in shambles. In 2017, they had Nancy Pelosi, the most feared leader of the party in decades. Pelosi’s last notable act was helping to force Joe Biden to resign last summer. Before that, however, she impeached Trump twice and maintained an iron grip on her party. This time, the Democrats lack a strategy. The default position of cooperating with Trump where they can and opposing him where they must is a recipe for division. Without a rudder, the party is adrift in the Trump sea.
Nor will the Republicans act as a check. The most effective blocker of Trump last time was John McCain, the late senator from Arizona. If not for McCain, Trump would have repealed Obamacare. At the time, there was a sizable group of Republicans in the Senate who could stand up to Trump. Of the seven who voted to impeach Trump in early 2021, four — Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Mitt Romney of Utah, Richard Burr of North Carolina and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania — walked away. The other three – Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana – are not enough to topple their party’s majority.
Today’s Supreme Court looks like a Magician in a mantle. In 2017, the court had a conservative 5-4 majority. But one of the Republican justices, Anthony Kennedy, was often inclined to side with the liberals. This time with a 6-3 majority, the court looks more like a rubber stamp than a check on unbridled executive power. Trump has already thrown down the gauntlet. On TikTok, he ignored a bipartisan ban passed by Congress that was upheld by a court last week. His defiance is reminiscent of Andrew Jackson, America’s seventh president, who reportedly said “let him get it done now” of the chief justice after the court banned the seizure of Cherokee land. Jackson won.
Trump is already playing the Jacksonian card. In one of his executive orders on Monday, he brushed aside the 14th Amendment, which grants automatic citizenship to anyone born on US soil. The ball is now in the court, so to speak. Like with TikTok. With whose army would the judges enforce the decision that Trump chose to ignore? The justices gave Trump almost carte blanche last summer when they carved out presidential immunity for any “official act” — a category so vaguely defined that Trump can do whatever he wants.
Would Trump seek court or congressional permission to seize the Panama Canal? Although he would be breaking two contracts, the question is the answer in itself. A similar defensive position was adopted by the media. In 2017, the Washington Post set an example for the industry when it adopted the motto “Democracy Dies in Darkness”. Last week, it added a mission statement, “Awesome Storytelling for All of America.” Its owner Jeff Bezos was among the plutocrats at Trump’s inauguration. His company, Amazon Prime, is paying Melania Trump, the first lady, $40 million to help make a documentary about herself. Let me be surprised if it pays off commercially.
So who will stand up to Trump? Allies are as resigned today as they were skeptical in Trump’s first term. At that time, Germany’s Angela Merkel was Europe’s first among equals. Today, the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who was also at Trump’s inauguration, is the safest leader of the continent. The British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, like the others, is collapsing to get into Trump’s good graces. The Danish government may have expected some solidarity after Trump announced that he wanted to annex Greenland. So far, however, the protests have been quiet. If Trump can covet allied territory with impunity, his only control seems to be himself.
He is now at the peak of his power. But power tends to slip away. In 2026, the Republicans could lose control of Congress, and then Trump would become a lame duck. At least that’s the story Democrats are invested in. But Trump’s opponents should know that they would be inheriting a very different country if they were to retake the White House next time. Trump is remaking America in his own image. You cannot step into the same river twice.
