China’s December exports likely gained momentum ahead of tariff uncertainty: Reuters Reuters poll
Ethan Wang and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese exports likely grew at a faster pace in December, suggesting producers rushed to move inventories to key markets ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House this month and new trade risks.
Outbound shipments were expected to rise 7.3% from a year earlier in value terms, the median forecast of 17 economists in a Reuters poll showed, up from a 6.7% rise in November.
Imports likely fell 1.5% in December, paring from a 3.9% drop in the previous month, indicating that factory managers are rushing to secure technology products in anticipation of tighter controls on semiconductor exports from the United States.
The data, due on Monday, pointed to sustained strength in China’s exports, even as the broader economy grapples with challenges such as a protracted housing market crisis and deflationary pressures.
However, different views still exist among China watchers. JP Morgan forecast export growth of 7.9%, while Standard Chartered (OTC:) expected slower growth of 5.4%.
Most economists polled by Reuters agreed that imports remained in contraction for a third straight month, although Standard Chartered had forecast a modest 1.5% rise.
South Korea, a leading indicator of Chinese imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December.
Exports may remain resilient in early 2025 as exporters continue to invest up front, Barclays (LON:) Said research. Still, uncertainties loom over Trump’s threats of tariffs, which could spark a trade war between the US and China.
Trump, who has proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, recently denied media reports that his team was considering scaling back tariff plans to cover only critical imports due to inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, trade tensions with the European Union remained heightened, where EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles strained relations.
Beijing responded by targeting anti-dumping investigations on European goods such as brandy amid talks to eliminate or reduce tariffs.
Economists continued to call on China to rebalance its economy by shifting reliance on investment and exports to consumption to avoid a prolonged period of low growth.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised more “proactive” policies to boost growth in 2025, while policymakers recently pledged to “vigorously” boost consumption and boost domestic demand.
Reuters reported that the government expects to maintain its economic growth target of around 5% this year.
China’s December trade surplus is forecast at $99.8 billion, up from $97.4 billion in November.
