Import tariffs, mass release of federal workers are some of the questions that take a toll on the psyche of consumer.
Consumer confidence in the United States has worsened with their worst pace at 3-1/2 years in February, while 12-month expectations of inflation increased, offering further signs that Americans become concerned about the potential negative impact on President Donald Trump’s politics.
The research of the Conference Committee on Tuesday noted that “the comments on the current administration and its policies were dominated by answers.”
It followed on the heels of the poll last week, showing a steep falling of business and a sense of consumer in February. Import tariffs, already imposed or planned by Trump, have been singled out as the main question in almost every study of households and companies.
Economists have said that unprecedented dismissals of the Federal Government workers also take a toll on the psyche of consumer, which they said they were a risk for consumption, the main engine of the economy.
“Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the odds. No federal government has ever threatened Government workers by mass cracking before and it begins to scare the daylight from consumers,” said Christopher Rupkey, the main economist in FWDBonds. “The economy could stop in the first quarter of the year because consumers stay home.”
The Conference Consumer Consumer Index has reduced 7 points, which is the highest drop in August 2021 to 98.3 this month. The economists surveyed by Reuters forecast the index of the fall, but only at 102.5. The third straight monthly reduction was pushing the index to the lowest level since June 2024. It is now at the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.
“There was a sudden increase in the mention of trade and tariffs, on the level of unprecedented since 2019,” said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist for global indicators in the conference committee. “Most importantly, comments on the current administration and his policies dominated the answers.”
Business and consumer mood increased after Trump’s victory on November 5 in the hope of a less controversial regulatory environment, tax reduction and low inflation. Trump, a Republican, during his first month, hit an additional 10 percent of tariffs on Chinese imports. 25 -partenous imports for imports from Mexico and Canada It was suspended until March. Trump has been raised this month Steel imports and aluminum imports to 25 percent.
Mass shootings
Tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceutical imports are found. At the same time, tens of thousands of federal government workers, mainly those at a territory, fired Of the billionaire Elon Men’s Department for the Efficiency of the Government or Doge – an entity created by Trump.
US shares have fallen into confidence information. The dollar alleviated the currency basket. American cash register slid.
Although economists are not yet foreseen by recession, they expect a long period of very slow economic growth and high inflation. This would set federal reserves in a difficult place. In January, the US Central Bank stopped decreasing interest rates, while policy creators followed the economic impact of Trump’s administration policies.
The Fed reduced its reference interest rate for 100 base points from September, when it began its cycle of policy relieving. It increased the policy rate by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to the tame inflation.
An average of 12-monthly inflation expectations of consumers jumped to 6 percent, which is the highest since May 2023, with 5.2 percent in February.
The so -called differential in the labor market, derived from the respondents’ attitudes information on whether the jobs are abundant or difficult to obtain, rejected to 17.1 of 19.4 last month.
This measure is correlated with the unemployment rate in the monthly employment report of the USA Ministry of Labor.
