Investing.com — Wolfe Research has identified ten critical policy issues that will shape the United States in 2025 as the political landscape shifts under a new Republican administration.
These questions, compiled in a detailed memo, explore the uncertainty and complexity of mobility policy under the Trump administration.
Each question presents management considerations, market impact and wider economic implications.
Confirming Trump’s nominees is the first big hurdle. While most are expected to be confirmed, several controversial figures face potential resistance.
Candidates like RFK Jr. in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) carry specific market implications, particularly in relation to health sector regulations.
Mass deportation policies are poised to redefine immigration dynamics, but the scale and effectiveness remain uncertain.
Analysts expect a significant drop in net migration, but note that operational and legal constraints could moderate the administration’s ambitions.
Trump’s tariff agenda is another point of contention. While threats of blanket tariffs can serve as negotiating tools, the administration is likely to implement selective tariffs, specifically targeting China.
These moves are expected to have market repercussions, especially in sectors exposed to tariffs.
Tax policy under the new administration will also be a focal point. Republicans intend to extend Trump-era tax cuts, but tight congressional margins may require compromises, including spending cuts in areas such as health care and energy subsidies.
Repealing clean energy tax credits and Medicaid reforms are among the potential savings measures being discussed.
Healthcare is a prominent topic, and the appointment of RFK Jr. asks questions about vaccine policy, drug prices and public health reform.
Initial signs point to a less disruptive approach than feared, with the focus likely to be on institutional reforms rather than confrontational regulatory changes.
The administration’s deregulatory ambitions, represented by the Department for Government Efficiency, face legal and procedural hurdles.
While certain industries, such as traditional energy and financial services, could benefit from regulatory rollbacks, broad-scale deregulation could be slower than expected due to judicial challenges.
In antitrust politics, Trump’s choices for regulatory roles signal a pro-business stance. However, populist influence, especially in sectors such as Big Tech, cannot be completely ruled out, reflecting internal divisions within the Republican agenda.
The note highlights fiscal sustainability as a long-term challenge. Despite promises of economic growth and deficit reduction, Wolfe Research analysts predict deficits will remain high and federal spending will increasingly be constrained by debt servicing costs.
Each of these questions indicates uncertainties and challenges to come. Wolfe Research emphasizes the need for vigilance and strategic planning as these issues evolve, noting that final results may not emerge until later in the year.
