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The UK government would have to pay between £5bn and £10bn in compensation to thousands of child sex abuse victims if it fully implements the recommendations of Professor Alexis Jay’s 2022 review, according to Whitehall estimates.
The high cost of compensation helps explain why the last Conservative government did not implement Jay’s recommendations.
Sir Keir Starmer criticized the Tories for failing to introduce Jay’s proposals and promised his Labor government would push through some of them, including making grooming an aggravating factor in sentencing abuse cases.
But the Prime Minister has so far failed to back Jay’s recommendation for a payment scheme that would “recognise the state’s responsibility to protect children from sexual abuse and the resulting harm that occurs over many decades”.
Although she did not estimate the cost of the compensation, figures within the Labor government — and the previous Tory regime — believe it could mean finding between £5bn and £10bn to pay out to the many victims, not just of the groom gang scandal but other child abuse scandals.
The publication of Jay’s Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA) in October 2022 was overshadowed by the collapse of Liz Truss’s short-lived Tory administration.
Rishi Sunak’s government promised in May 2023 to set up a “compensation scheme for survivors of child sexual abuse”, but ministers said they would first launch “extensive engagement exercise” before deciding on eligibility, types of legal protection and the application process for the program.
The scheme would be open to “any victim of child sexual abuse that occurred before its establishment” where there was a “clear link” with state or non-state institutions in England or Wales, the government said at the time.
But Sunak’s administration did not set aside money to fund the compensation scheme before he called an early general election last summer.
Both former Tory and Labor officials said they were aware of the initial compensation estimate of close to £7 billion.
Another person who worked at the Home Office during Sunak’s government said there were wider estimates of £5bn to £10bn for the cost. “We pushed for it, but Rishi didn’t want to do it,” they said. “It was blocked.”
Sunak’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but one ally said Downing Street had in fact put pressure on the Home Office – then led by Suella Braverman – to do more to “engage with Alexis [Jay]” and create a delivery plan for her recommendations.
A Sunak ally confirmed the rough range of cost estimates, but said there was never a “precise figure”.
One veteran of the previous government admitted that ministers were more focused on the challenge of how to fund compensation for victims contaminated blood scandal and Post Horizont scandal.
“It was something we would do at some point, but not immediately, there was no evil plan not to do it,” they said. “The report came out at an unfortunate time and may have been forgotten or deprioritized to some extent.”
On Wednesday, a Home Office spokesman said the government was focused on providing “significant change” for victims of abuse.
“We are working rapidly to go through the details of all the recommendations of the Independent Child Sexual Abuse Inquiry, including an estimate of the costs of their implementation,” they said.
“The Home Secretary has outlined in Parliament commitments to make it mandatory for those who work with children to report sexual abuse and exploitation, to make grooming an aggravating factor, to toughen penalties and to improve data collection across forces.”
