Investing.com — Online travel industry heads into 2025 with mixed outlook, analysts say Barclays (LON:) forecasting a more challenging environment ahead.
While 2024 ended stronger than expected, Barclays notes that increasing foreign exchange (FX) headwinds and high expectations are likely to dampen growth in 2025. The bank weighed in on several key names in a note this week:
Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: ) stands out as a bullish pick in Barclays’ report, despite its relatively high valuation.
Barclays believes BKNG remains a “name to own” in the long term due to its “strong performance” and “expected growth (ex-FX)”, supported by restructuring savings. “We do not think there is much reason for further multiple reratings, but there is room for positive revisions to estimates,” notes Barclays.
While currency headwinds may affect short-term growth, Barclays says BKNG’s international exposure and mix of categories, including double-digit growth in alternative accommodation and airfares, positions BKNG for continued success.
Airbnb, on the other hand, faces a more cautious outlook, according to Barclays. The bank pointed to “EBITDA margin compression” in 2025. The bank said the company had previously signaled this margin squeeze, but analysts remained concerned that “consensus is still too optimistic” about its ability to maintain profitability amid higher investments in expanding reach. Barclays set a $110 price target on ABNB, noting that while its “share over traditional accommodation” is strengthening, growth initiatives come at a price.
Expedia (NASDAQ: ) presents a mixed lineup, Barclays says. With the easiest revenue comparisons among competitors, EXPE will benefit from its domestic exposure, which reduces the impact of FX challenges.
However, the bank warns that the company faces softer domestic travel trends and uncertainty due to “changes in management” and potential margin pressure. Analysts raised their price target on EXPE from $153 to $166, acknowledging its solid growth but highlighting the risk of execution challenges.
Finally, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: ) is expected to face a tough 2025, with expectations too high for the company to meet. Barclays cut its growth assumptions, citing a “sharp year-over-year decline” in core business, though Viator and TheFork show promise. Barclays expects a “margin contraction point” and remains cautious on TRIP’s outlook for the year.
