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The writer is the president of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What went wrong with capitalism‘
As Donald Trump prepares to take office, his victory is still seen as part of a global story of frustrated voters turning against incumbent leaders. But this rebellion is not global. It is limited to the developed world.
Last year, ruling parties lost 85 percent of elections in developed countries, compared to 25 percent on average in the early 2000s. In developing countries, the mood has changed to the other side. Incumbents lost about 25 percent of the 2024 election, down from 50 percent in the early 2000s. Public opinion polls tell the same story: the share of respondents who approve of their leader has fallen to almost 30 percent in developed countries, while it is steadily above 50 percent in developing countries.
The authorities in power are as popular, if not more so, than ever in developing countries. So what’s behind this big discrepancy?
Hostility to the powerful in Europe, Japan and the US has been linked to varying degrees to recent increases in immigration and commodity prices, fueling a sense that the system is increasingly rigged and biased against the average person. This further encourages a long-term decline in public confidence in the government. But all these forces are less acute or absent in many developing democracies, including large ones where ruling parties have won, led by India, Indonesia and Mexico.
Voters in the US and Europe said one of their biggest concerns last year was inflation, where the legacy of the pandemic has left prices for essentials painfully high. Since the rate of inflation rose much more sharply in developed countries, the shock felt by voters was more profound.
By 2024, the price of eggs in the US, for example, was still 200 percent higher than before the pandemic — compared to about 50 percent higher in India and Indonesia. Even after adjusting for that broader rise in inflation, house prices rose 17 percent in developed countries, compared with just 3 percent in developing countries, which helps explain why unaffordable housing is fueling strong anti-incumbency sentiment in the US and UK .
Meanwhile, the wave of immigration has become a hot election issue in the West, but not in developing countries, which are mostly the origin rather than the destination for immigrants.
Although the post-pandemic recovery has led to many things greater gains for the rich than for the restthe gap widened relatively slowly in developing countries. Since 1980, the income share of the top 1 percent has more than doubled in the US to 21 percent, while it has risen by just 3 points to an average of 18 percent in major developing economies. Most strikingly, Mexico is one of the few countries where the income share of the top 1 percent is falling.
The growing impact of inflation, immigration and inequality help explain why only about 20 percent of Americans express trust in government, down from a peak above 70 percent in the 1960s. In developing countries, confidence is rising on average, boosted over the past decade by big gains in countries where incumbents won last year. Nearly 50 percent of Mexicans and more than 70 percent of Indians and Indonesians now express confidence in their government.
One of the reasons for the growth in trust is the rapid digitization of government, which improves the delivery of public services by cutting out corrupt middlemen. By 2022, driven by gains in India, developing country governments have overtaken their developed counterparts on the World Bank’s “Government Technology Maturity” index.
In developing countries, electoral battles are more idiosyncratic and local. In Mexico last year, the incumbent party won for reasons that include a record fight against poverty, and in Indonesia because of the popularity of outgoing president Joko Widodo despite accusations that he is naming his son as his successor. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered the loss of his legislative majority but still won a third term, boosted by more effective delivery of social benefits. Across India, parties in power have also fared well in recent state elections.
It looks like these mood swings will continue. In 2025, polls show that incumbents will lose all three national elections in the developed world – in Germany, Australia and Canada. There will be fewer major national elections in developing countries and emerging markets, but polls suggest more mixed results. The current authorities are headed for defeat in national elections in Poland and Romania, victory in Ecuador and major parliamentary elections in Argentina and the Philippines. For now, most developing countries see no urgent reason to kick out the bums.
