What did Netanyahu gain and lose by agreeing to a cease-fire between Israel and Gaza? | News about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have finally relented. After more than a year of refusing to agree to an end to the war in Gaza, he is now pushing cease-fire which – the mediators insist – will do just that.

Netanyahu’s government met on Friday to approve the dealwhich would include a prisoner-for-prisoner exchange, a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and an end to the devastating war Israel has waged on the Palestinian enclave.

Implementation is set to begin on Sunday, when criticism of the Israeli prime minister is likely to begin as he faces opposition within his own government. This opposition repeats like parrots exactly what he insisted on for a long time: there is no end to the war without the destruction of Hamas.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has proudly claimed to have used his power to prevent any prisoner release deal from being reached over the past year, branded the current deal on the table “horrible” and insisted that he and his the party will leave the government if implemented.

But that won’t be enough to topple Netanyahu’s government. Ben-Gvir needs the support of his fellow far-right traveler Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his religious Zionist party. Smotrich appears ready to proceed with the deal, but only in its first phase, which would see some of the Israeli prisoners released. Afterwards, Religious Zionism said its members would resign from the government unless the war in Gaza – which has so far killed more than 46,700 Palestinians – he continues.

The Trump factor

Despite these threats to his rule, Netanyahu appears to be thriving. The planned start of the ceasefire comes a day ahead of a deadline set by incoming US President-elect Donald Trump, with Monday being his inauguration day.

Israel’s far right saw Trump — a pro-Israel Republican who plans to bring into his administration several politicians with strong ties to the Israeli settler movement — as their man, a president who would look the other way as the movement pursues its dream of building illegal settlements in Gaza and expelling the population. .

So far, that doesn’t appear to be the case, and Trump has emphasized that he wants the war to end before he takes office.

While at first reading this might be negative for Netanyahu, perceptions that he may have been coerced by the Trump administration may be politically useful for the Israeli prime minister in the short term, allowing him more room to maneuver in the future.

“This could be more transactional than many assume,” said Mairav ​​Zonszein, an Israel expert at the International Crisis Group, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest-serving leader may not be so easily forced.

“By agreeing now, Netanyahu may have bought himself greater freedom of action in the West Bank and in determining an agreed future for Gaza,” she said, referring to far-right Israeli plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territory, which is dotted with Israeli settlements that are illegal under international law. the right one.

“Everyone knew that the prisoners would have to be exchanged at some point. It’s always been like that. For many people, it’s not even a safety issue. What is a security issue for many is who will rule in Gaza,” she said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement, before going on to suggest that by agreeing to a ceasefire now, Netanyahu could be more secure in the goodwill of the US when dealing with Gaza in the future.

Political reality

Netanyahu has been closely allied with far-right members of his government since returning to office in late 2022. It was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who supported Netanyahu when others on the Israeli right abandoned him because of the ongoing corruption trial and unpopularity among large segments the Israeli public.

Without them, he would not have been able to form a ruling coalition, and without them, the thinking goes, his government would fall, and with it any chance of securing immunity from criminal prosecution.

But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, appears to have another plan for survival.

Most people in his government support the ceasefire, including the important ultra-Orthodox religious bloc. The opposition also said it was willing to give Netanyahu a safety net to implement the deal.

The prime minister has always had a good sense of how the Israeli public feels and, analysts say, he may have realized that the mood is now more open to a deal that would see the prisoners return home and end the war.

It helps that Israel can claim to have re-established deterrence and that its enemies – including Hamas, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and most importantly Iran – have been dealt heavy blows.

But, said Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg, the triumphalism over these geopolitical victories has given way to a sense of acceptance and resignation that the war must end.

“Nobody’s really celebrating,” Goldberg said. “Everyone knew this had to come. Israelis have been living in a sort of stupor for the past 15 months. Life has become difficult for many Israelis, not as difficult as we have made it for the Palestinians, but difficult.”

“For 15 months we were told that we were on the verge of absolute victory, but we achieved nothing but destruction and killing,” added Goldberg. “We are tired. Don’t get me wrong – many people would still destroy Gaza if it guaranteed security – but we’ve tried our best and we still don’t have it.”

“The Israelis are spent,” he continued. “With luck, those first six weeks should be enough to build momentum toward a settlement.”

Cost calculation

Netanyahu could therefore capitalize on public sentiment and even present himself as having ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before any new elections, earning himself yet another political execution.

But for Israeli society, there is a price for waging war on such a scale rights groups they characterized as genocide apart from the prisoners held in Gaza, the soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon in coffins and Israel’s growing international isolation.

In fact, for many observers, the Israel emerging from the carnage in Gaza is a far cry from the state it existed before the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023. which killed 1,139 people.

During the war that followed, the right-wing extremes of Israeli politics took center stage as the reach of the security services expanded beyond the limits many previously thought possible.

In May, a paper written by two prominent Israeli academicsEugene Kandel and Ron Tzur, suggested that given the divisions produced by the country’s war on Gaza and the Netanyahu government’s attempts to separate itself from judicial supervision“there is a significant likelihood that Israel will not be able to exist as a sovereign Jewish state for decades to come.”

“There has definitely been moral corruption within Israel,” said Dr. Guy Shalev, executive director of Physicians for Human Rights Israel, which has documented the denial of medical care and torture of Palestinians.

“The devaluing of human life, especially Palestinian life, which before the war was not considered very valuable, was dramatic,” Shalev said.

“Loss of life on this scale and the government’s disregard for life [Israeli] the hostages eroded what we call in Hebrew ‘arvut hadadit,’ which refers to the sense of mutual responsibility that binds all Jews,” Shalev added. “I think basically, if Palestinian lives don’t matter, then ultimately all lives matter less.”