Each new president begins a new chapter in American history. And when Donald Trump is inaugurated in chilly Washington DC on Monday, he will be hoping to usher in a new era for this country.
The ceremony in the rotunda of the US Capitol, which was moved indoors for the first time in decades because of the bitter cold, will also mark the moment when he will be judged by deeds rather than promises.
And he promised seismic change as well as action on the first day. At a raucous rally in the city on Sunday, Trump said he would sign a series of executive orders in the moments after his inauguration, covering issues from immigration and deportations to the environment and transgender rights.
“You’re going to have a lot of fun watching TV tomorrow,” he told the crowd.
But even if his presidency starts off with a bang, there are still questions about what Trump’s second act will look like.
Will we feel the tectonic plates of power shifting beneath our feet as he re-enters the White House? Can he implement the sweeping reforms he promised? Will it be as apocalyptic as its detractors suggest?
Listening to some of his detractors, you’d be forgiven for thinking the sky would darken and the birds would flee Washington the moment he was sworn in.
Many worry that he will try to rule as an autocrat and undermine American democracy. His predecessor, Joe Biden, sharply used his last Oval Office address to warn of a dangerous oligarchy of irresponsible billionaires forming around Trump and threatening the basic rights and freedoms of Americans.
But no one can deny that Trump, 78, has a clear mandate after his decisive victory in November’s election. He won the elections and the electoral college. He won in swing states. His program has the green light of the voters.
This time, Trump is determined to see his agenda through. He has a much more experienced and deeply loyal team behind him to make sure that happens.
He also plans – probably with help “Department of Government Efficiency” by Elon Musk – dismiss a huge number of civil servants and civil servants in a flash.
Trump still believes there is a “deep state” within the US government that will try to thwart his plan. So we can expect a far more drastic removal of federal employees than would otherwise come with a change in administration, and a far more politicized government machine behind it.
Many of his plans, such as major tax cuts for large corporations and the very wealthy, will need legislation passed by Congress.
But that won’t be a problem, because he has control of the Republican Party and its majorities in both chambers. It is unlikely that senators and representatives will oppose him in significant numbers. And he has Musk on hand to wield his social media platform and vast wealth to force any rebels back into line.
Is there anything that could stop Trump from rounding up and deporting millions of undocumented migrants or using the justice system to target political opponents he sees as his enemies?
No doubt there are logistical and financial obstacles, especially when it comes to mass deportations, but democratic opposition alone is unlikely to be enough to stop it. After all, the party is still reeling from the resounding electoral defeat.
There is internal conflict as members conduct a lengthy post-mortem over that result. And the resistance movement that mobilized before Trump’s first term, sparking days of nationwide protests after his inauguration that brought more than a million people to the streets, appears to be less vigorous this time around.
After losing the 2020 election, Trump was kicked off social media platforms following the riots at the Capitol and his baseless claims of voter fraud. These companies are already treating him differently this time, as he prepares for the inauguration inside the rotunda through which his supporters wandered on January 6, 2021.
Featured in the VIP viewing area will be a collection of the world’s richest people. Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg will be there. The CEOs of Google, Apple and TikTok will do the same. It is the living embodiment of the ultra-rich “tech-industrial complex” that Biden warned about in his farewell speech.
These people have already established warmer relations with Trump. ZuckerbergMeta abandons fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram, Bezos stopped the Washington Post (which he owns) from endorsing Kamala Harris. And they all donated millions to Trump’s inaugural fund.
Whether in Congress or the corporate world, Trump is taking office this time with a warm welcome from America’s powers that be.
No doubt his slate of executive orders on day one will contain some eye-catching moves designed to tickle his base. Like the presidential pardon for many, if not all, of the people convicted of the Capitol riots. His supporters will be delighted to see people they consider political hostages freed from prison.
Trump will need a steady stream of populist moves like this. Because there is a risk that some of his plans are contrary to what some of his supporters voted for.
Many wanted lower prices after years of high inflation. But most economists suggest that tariffs on imported goods are likely to push up prices further.
Mass deportations could lead to labor shortages in construction – complicating his pledge to build more houses – and in the agricultural sector, which could further drive up food prices. It looks like billionaires, not the working class, will benefit from the biggest tax cuts.
Attention-grabbing proposals, such as a promise to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of Mexico, could excite many of those who put him in office. But it remains to be seen how many Americans will feel the benefit of his headline policy.
Trump, however, is the ultimate political showman. His ability to entertain is part of his power and appeal. But his program for a second term goes deeper than mere show-off and would bring about transformations if implemented.
His return to the White House will be dramatic and eventful, with consequences that will be felt around the world. It could change America in fundamental and lasting ways.
