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The population in the UK will increase by about 5 mn to 72.5 mn in the decade, according to new data, guided by more international migrations than before.
Over 10 years until mid -2032, it is estimated that the population will increase by 4.9 million, or 7.3 percent, with estimated 67.6 million to 72.5mn, National Statistics Office said on Tuesday.
The increase is predicted that the increase will fully come from the net migration, while the natural change – the difference between birth and death – predicts that it is around zero.
Ons said he now believes that long -term international migration will be greater than in previous projections. Its latest forecasts also assume lower fertility and an increase in life.
James Robards of Ons said that forecasts were “based on current and past trends, and they are not predicted about what may or cannot happen in the future.”
Said that the latest projections also stood out more and more the aging of the populationWith the number of people over 85 years of age, scheduled to double at 3.3 mn by 2047. “This is partly due to the aging generation of Baby Boom, as well as the general increase in life’s expected life,” Robards said.
Ons explains that the national projections do not predict and do not directly take into account recent and future policies or economic changes. They are based on the assumption of a long -term net international migration of 340,000 people a year from mid -2028 onwards, compared to previous projections of 315,000.
Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy, King’s College London, said: “These projections are almost certainly overrated because they do not seem to take into account the sharp fall of a net migration that is already underway, as we know from a separate statistics on the visas issued .
Information ons Posted last November It showed that net migration to the UK exceeded 900,000 in the year until June 2024, which is the highest annual total number, but fell by 20 percent in 12 months to June 2024.
Portes added that ons -published figures are assumed to stabilize “while falling significantly in recent years.” The ONS now assumes a long -term fertility rate of 1.45, which is less than 1,59 in previous projections.
The latest figures showed that the fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.44 children per woman in 2023, which is the lowest since the comparable data began in 1938.
The number of children aged 15 is expected to decrease by 797,000, from 12.4 million to 11.6 million, until mid-2032, according to ONS.
On the other hand, it is predicted that the number of people from a pension will increase by 1.7 mn in the same period, or 14 percent, from 12.0mn to 13.7mn, taking into account the planned increase in state pension to 67 years for 67 years for 67 years 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years for 67 years of both sexes.
The growth of the UK population is contrary to the population that has already been reduced in many countries, including Italy, Japan and China. The German population is expected to begin to decrease in the next few years, according to the UN forecasts.
In appearance until 2047, OS said that “net migration is envisaged that the only source of population growth in the UK in the next 25 years”.
