The number of Palestinian casualties of the Gaza war could be significantly higher than the official figures released by the Hamas-run health ministry, suggests research published in the Lancet medical journal.
The study led by Great Britain covered the first nine months of the warwhich began when armed members of Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023.
He used data from the ministry, an online survey of relatives who reported deaths and obituaries. By June 30, 2024, an estimated 64,260 Palestinians had died from traumatic injuries, meaning that the number of reported deaths was less than 41%.
The number of Palestinian deaths has been a source of contention, although the UN considers the health ministry’s figures reliable.
The ministry’s figures do not distinguish combatants from civilians although a a recent UN report said that most of the confirmed victims in the six-month period were women and children.
Israel says that Hamas’ information cannot be trusted. In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said they had “eliminated more than 17,000 terrorists,” although it is unclear how they arrived at that figure. The IDF insists it only targets combatants and tries to avoid or minimize civilian casualties.
Israel does not allow international journalists from media organizations, including the BBC, independent access to Gaza, making fact-checking on the ground difficult.
The team behind the latest study used a statistical method called “capture-recapture,” a technique used to estimate deaths in other conflicts.
The researchers looked at how many people repeatedly showed up in different attempts to count the deaths. The level of overlap between these lists suggests that the number of deaths directly caused by traumatic injuries in the conflict may be significantly higher than hospital figures published by the Ministry of Health.
The Gaza Ministry of Health publishes an updated number of war victims every day. It compiles the figures from deaths recorded in hospitals, deaths reported by family members and deaths from “reliable media reports”.
The Lancet report estimates the death toll at between 55,298-78,525 people, compared with 37,877 according to the health ministry.
The figures in the report may be significantly higher or lower depending on the technical details of the analysis.
For example, identifying deaths by “traumatic injury” in each data set could be difficult. Getting it wrong could push the study’s estimates higher or lower.
The survey also said that 59% of those killed for whom gender and age data were available were women, children and the elderly.
The war in Gaza caused a Hamas attack in which about 1,200 people were killed and 251 people were returned to Gaza as hostages. In response, Israel launched a major military offensive against Gaza.
The Ministry of Health says 46,006 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in the Israeli campaign.
