The CIA now says that COVID was most likely caused by a leak from the lab, but has “low confidence” in its estimate

The CIA now believes the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic they most likely came from a lab, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even as it admits the spy agency has “low confidence” in its conclusions.

The revelation was not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday at the behest of President Trump, John Ratcliffe, the agency’s top pick, who was sworn in as director on Thursday.

“The CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on available reports. The CIA continues to assess that both research-related scenarios and a natural origin of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” he said. an agency spokesman said in a statement, noting that it “will continue to evaluate any available credible new intelligence reports or reports of open source information that could change the CIA’s assessment.”

Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser in the Biden administration, ordered a secret review of U.S. intelligence gathered on the origins of COVID-19 in December, one current and one former U.S. official confirmed to CBS News. Sullivan convened a group of outside intelligence assessment experts and asked the intelligence community to review its data and reach a conclusion. Both officials told CBS News that there is no new “gun” but a low-confidence estimate based on the same data. Burns ordered the review before leaving the CIA, citing strong interest from policymakers.

The nuanced finding suggests the agency believes the totality of the evidence makes a laboratory origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment gives a low degree of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting that the evidence is flawed, inconclusive, or contradictory.

Earlier reports on the origin of COVID-19 they are divided over whether the coronavirus emerged from a Chinese laboratory, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be resolved, because of a lack of cooperation from the Chinese authorities.

Instead of new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analyzes of intelligence data on the spread of the virus, its scientific properties, and the work and conditions of Chinese virology laboratories.

Lawmakers pressed US spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, leading to quarantines, economic disruption and millions of deaths. It’s a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the legacy of the pandemic.

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday he was “satisfied that the CIA concluded in the final days of the Biden administration that the lab leak theory was the most likely explanation” and praised Ratcliffe for declassifying the assessments.

“The most important thing now is to make China pay for unleashing the scourge on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.

Chinese authorities have dismissed speculation about the origin of COVID as unhelpful and politically motivated. On Saturday, a spokesman for the US embassy in China said the CIA report lacked credibility.

“We strongly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus and once again urge everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in an emailed statement to The Associated Press.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated among bats, like many coronaviruses, before infecting another species, possibly raccoon dogs, civets or bamboo rats. On the other hand, the infection spread to people who handled or slaughtered these animals at the market in Wuhan, where the first human cases appeared in late November 2019.

Some official investigations, however, have questioned whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Two years ago, a Department of Energy report concluded that a leak from a laboratory was the most likely source, although that report also expressed low confidence in the finding.

That same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed the virus “most likely” spread after escaping the lab.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, said he also supports the lab leak scenario.

“A laboratory leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA said it would continue to evaluate any new information that might change its assessment.

contributed to this report.